After days of consolidation near the local high, Bitcoin is trying to break out and challenge the $30,000 level.
Bitcoin (BTC)’s tight consolidation near its local high suggests that traders are waiting for a catalyst to initiate the next trending move. Consumer price data for April 12 and Producer Price Index data for April 13 could shed light on future Federal Reserve rate hikes and shake traders out of their slumber.
The boring behavior of Bitcoin prices has not reduced interest in it. According to Ahrefs search volume data, Bitcoin remains the most searched term on Google in the United States, followed by the keywords Donald Trump and Breaking news.
Another point to note is that the circulating supply of Bitcoin continues to decline. Citing data from Glassnode, investor Anthony Pompliano noted that 53% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin has not moved in the past two years.
If demand increases, there could be a shortage of supply, which could push prices up. What are the critical resistance levels to watch in Bitcoin and altcoins in the short term?
Let’s study the graphs to find out.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose after a two-day correction on April 6, indicating that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on minor dips.
The upward slope of the 20-day exponential average (4,035) and the RSI in positive territory increase the probability of a rally to 4,200 points. Although this level has been a formidable barrier in the past, it is likely to be scaled on the third try. If this happens, the index could challenge the resistance of 4,300 points. This level could witness aggressive selling by the bears.
The first major support to watch on the downside is the 20 day EMA. If this support breaks, the index could retest the vital support of the 200-day simple moving average ($3,944).
Analysis of the price of the US dollar index
The US Dollar Index continues to trade below the 20-day EMA (102.73), indicating that the short-term trend remains down. The sellers are likely to defend the 20 day EMA during the current relief rally.
If the price turns lower from the 20 day EMA, the index could drop to the vital support of 100.82. The bulls are expected to protect this level with all their might, as a break below would complete a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. Then the index could start the next leg of the downtrend.
Another possibility is that the price bounces off the 100.82 support and breaks above the 20-day EMA. If this happens, the index could range between 100.82 and the 200-day EMA (106.47) for some more time.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin bounced off the 20-day EMA ($27,692) on April 9, indicating buying at lower levels. The gradually rising 20 day EMA and the RSI in positive territory indicate advantage for buyers.
$29,200 is the key level to watch on the upside. If the bulls break through this resistance, the BTC/USDT pair could rally as high as $30,000. The bears will try to stop the rally at this level, but the probability of a break above is high. The pair could go as high as $32,200.
Conversely, if the pair turns back from $29,200, the bears will be active at the higher levels. The sellers will try to sink the pair below the 20 day EMA again. If they do, the pair could drop as low as $25,250.
Ether Price Analysis
The buyers successfully defended the 20-day EMA ($1,813) on April 9, indicating that the trend remains positive in Ether (ETH).
The bulls will try to break through the $1,943 barrier and catapult the price to $2,200. The sellers are likely to defend the $2,000-$2,200 zone fiercely. If the price turns lower from this area but does not break below the 20 day EMA, it is a sign that the rally can extend further.
This positive view will be invalidated in the short term if the price turns lower and breaks below the 20 day EMA. The ETH/USDT pair could then drop to the strong support zone of $1,743 to $1,680.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB (BNB) has been trading below the 20-day EMA ($313) for the past few days, but the bulls have not allowed the price to slide below the immediate support of $306. This suggests that the pressure from sale is drying up. This suggests that the selling pressure is petering out at the lower levels.
The bulls will take advantage of the situation and try to break above the resistance at $318. If successful, the BNB/USDT pair could pick up momentum and shoot up to $338 and later to $346.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears are selling every small relief rally. If the $306 level gives way, the pair could slide down to the 200-day SMA ($292).
XRP Price Analysis
XRP (XRP) has been trading above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.49 for the past few days, indicating that buyers are not waiting for a deeper correction to buy.
The bulls will try to reinforce their position by pushing the price towards the upper zone between $0.56 and $0.58. This remains the key area to watch, as a break above it could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.65 and $0.80 thereafter.
Instead, If the price turns lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($0.48), it will suggest that short-term traders may be booking profit. That could pull the XRP/USDT pair towards the important support at $0.43.
Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been trading above the 20-day EMA ($0.37) for the past few days, but the bulls are struggling to clear the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern. This suggests that the bears are defending the level vigorously.
Typically, a tight consolidation is followed by a sharp breakout. The rise of the 20 day EMA and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that the breakout may be to the upside. A close above the neckline will complete the reversal setup and signal the start of a new uptrend towards the $0.60 target.
This bullish view will be negated if the price turns lower and breaks below the 20 day EMA. The ADA/USDT pair could drop as far as the 200-day SMA ($0.35). This level is likely to attract heavy buying by the bulls.
Polygon Price Analysis
The sellers tried to plunge Polygon (MATIC) below the support line on April 9-10, but the bulls held their ground. This suggests buying at lower levels.
The bulls will try to break above the 20-day EMA ($1.11). If they succeed, the MATIC/USDT pair could reach the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle. If the triangle breaks out and closes above, the bulls will outperform the bears. This would clear the way for a possible rally towards $1.30.
Conversely, if the price turns lower from the 20-day EMA and breaks down below the support line, it indicates that the bears are in control. Then the pair could retest vital support at the 200-day SMA ($0.99).
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) successfully held the moving averages on April 8, but the shallow bounce on April 9 suggests demand is drying up at higher levels.
Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The bounce from the current level could be faced with selling at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.09. If the price turns down from this level, the DOGE/USDT pair could range between $0.09 and the moving averages for a while.
A break below the moving averages could sink the pair to the strong support of $0.07, while a rally above $0.09 would increase the probability of a rally to $0.11.
Solana Price Analysis
The Solana (SOL) trading range has narrowed further, indicating uncertainty between the bulls and the bears.
The flat 20-day EMA ($20.64) and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage to either the bulls or the bears. Therefore, it is better to wait for a breakout before placing large bets.
If the price rises and breaks through the downtrend line, it could attract strong buying by the bulls.. The SOL/USDT pair could then rally to $27 and then $39. On the other hand, the selling could intensify if the price breaks below $18.70. The pair could drop to $15.28.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.