Bitcoin (BTC) remains on track to hit $180,000 in its next halving cycle, according to a veteran market participant.
In a new analysis published on March 3, Filbfilb, co-founder of the Decentrader trading suite, reaffirmed his bullish outlook on the BTC price for years to come.
Filbfilb Keeps Faith in Bitcoin Halving Cycles
With the BTC/USD pair approaching $30,000, but traders highly wary of the 2023 rally, the sky-high BTC price predictions have not been well received.
Two current $1 million forecasts, from ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and former Coinbase exec Balaji Srinivasan, respectively, continue to divide opinions post-crypto winter 2022.
When considering whether any of them have merit, Filbfilb turned to brute math to determine some probable macro highs and lows for Bitcoin after its upcoming block subsidy halving.
At the end of March next year, the halving will again cut the block reward paid to miners by 50%. In previous four-year cycles after previous halvings, the BTC/USD pair has displayed patterns of behavior that are still valid today.
“When using the days since the Bitcoin halving (where the inflation rate of new Bitcoins is halved); we can see that Bitcoin peaks around 368-550 days after the halving and then bottoms out 779 -914 days after the cycle”summarizes Filbfilb.
By generating the so-called “price curve”, his analysis shows that it is possible to get a rough idea of where the BTC/USD pair will top and bottom in the coming halving cycles.
“By combining the expected dates of the halvings and the days to the highs and lows of the cycles with an extrapolated regression of the price data, it is possible to use this model to predict where the price of Bitcoin will be at the highs and lows of the cycles. future cycles,” he continues.
BTC price at $200,000 or more?
Therefore, Aligned with 2013, 2017, and 2021, 2025 should see a “double top” setup in which Bitcoin breaks above $200,000 twice.
The corresponding bear market low a year later is centered around $50,000, according to the calculations.
Filbfilb acknowledges that price volatility and the trajectory of bearish highs will diminish over time, but argues that global trends toward digital stores of value will help Bitcoin bulls.
However, for his part, he believes that the next cycle will bring a maximum slightly lower than the figures suggest, around USD 180,000, already in play since February.
“I recently said that $180,000 is the target for the next cycle, for now I’m sticking with that statement”he concludes.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Investments in crypto assets are not regulated. They may not be suitable for retail investors and the entire amount invested may be lost. The services or products offered are not directed or accessible to investors in Spain.