The celebration of COP26 has been accompanied by the publication of the latest status report on zero-emission vehicles worldwide. Evolution is clear, but the road ahead is even more so.
The pressure on manufacturers, infrastructures, administrations and users of means of transport is increasing, since a large part of the responsibility of reduce polluting emissions.
But how effective is the work done in recent years being? To answer this question, BloombergNEF has produced a detailed report at the request of the Presidency of the COP26, the United Nations Conference on Climate Change, and in association with Bloomberg Philanthropies, coinciding with the holding of said conference in Glasgow, United Kingdom.
7.2% of new cars sold worldwide in the first half of this year were electric
This analysis of the penetration of zero-emission vehicles worldwide documents the progress that manufacturers, governments and administrations are making in their goal of achieving zero emissions in the road transport sector.
While many of the indicators in this report point in the right direction, most of them still portray that there’s still a long way to go before ensuring that the said path towards zero emissions has been definitively taken.
According to the report, “national, regional and local governments should continue to increase their ambition and implement stable long-term policies that promote the growth of zero-emission transport, as well as manage the elimination of polluting vehicles.
“Manufacturers and technology companies have the need to accelerate the development and deployment of vehicles and technology support, such as batteries, infrastructure and software. And the public and private sectors must work together to grow and develop the new supply chains and skills bases necessary to enable the transition in all countries, ”the document emphasizes.
This report is structured around four key elements of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) transition:
- ZEV Market Overview
- Market Drivers
- Corporate commitments
- Government commitments
Sustained growth of the electric car
The report produced by BlombergNEF reveals many interesting and revealing facts about the real state of health of the electric vehicle in the world. Without going further, annual sales of electric vehicles are around 5.6 million units in 2021, compared to the 2.1 million registered in 2019 and the 3.1 million in 2020. That is, 7.2% of the new cars sold worldwide in the first half of this year were electric, which represents a 4.6% increase in two years.
This assumes that the global electrified road transport market is currently worth around $ 244 billion (about 210,000 million euros).
The electric vehicle market in data:
- There are more than 500 zero-emission vehicle models available to buy globally, a 37% increase from 2019.
- The proposed and confirmed rules in the US, the European Union and China imply that electric vehicles will account for approximately 20-30% of car sales in those markets by 2025.
- Automakers have collectively pledged to sell around 40 million electric vehicles per year by 2030, and 27% are already car manufacturers with plans to phase out combustion engines.
Regardless, global emissions from road transport are on the rise again, after the 2020 crash due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This makes it clear that there is still a lot of work to do to decarbonize the trucking sector in the future.
North America, the region with the most pending work
The most polluting region is North America, which accumulates emissions associated with road transport of approximately 1.5 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 in 2021.
Europe and China are the next regions with the highest emitters, with estimates of around 0.90 Gt and 0.70 Gt of CO2 respectively. Finally, India and the rest of the world account for 48% of global emissions today.
The long-term outlook for the adoption of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles has become more optimistic in the last two years. BNEF projects that ZEV’s commercial and passenger fleet will reach 677 million vehicles by 2040.
In 2019, this forecast was just 495 million ZEV. This forecast also points out that passenger ZEVs represent 39% of the total in 2040, up from 26% in the 2019 report.
China and Europe, electric car motors
As we have previously advanced, global sales of electric passenger vehicles grew by 47% in 2020, reaching 3.1 million. This increase in electric vehicle sales contrasts with the marked general market decline of passenger vehicles, which fell by 14% due to the pandemic.
Europe and China were responsible for 82% of sales global electric vehicles in 2020 and 84% in the first half of 2021. The next largest market is the United States, which has occupied 11% of the world market in the first half of 2021.
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BNEF expects 2021 to be another record year for electric vehicle sales globally, with a forecast of 5.6 million total sales. If confirmed, this would increase sales of electric passenger vehicles in 2021 by 83% compared to 2020, and 168% more than in 2019.
Globally, sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) exceed those of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and fuel cell (FCV):
- BEVs accounted for almost 5% of total global sales in the first half of 2021.
- PHEVs exceeded 2% and FCVs constitute a miniscule part of the passenger vehicle, below 1% of global sales.
The plug-in hybrid triumphs in Europe
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which are not strictly zero-emission vehicles, have performed considerably better in Europe. More than half of all electric vehicles sold on the Old Continent in the first half of 2021 were PHEVs, compared to 35% in 2019. PHEV’s share of passenger vehicle sales in Europe has skyrocketed as a result , from just over 1% in 2019 to 8% in the first half of 2021.
The fleet of electric passenger and fuel cell vehicles has doubled in size since 2019. A total of 12.6 million electric vehicles and FCVs sold through the first half of 2021, up from just 6.9 million at the end of 2019.
This equals only 1% of the world’s passenger vehicle fleet, with China and Europe hosting 76% of that fleet. And there are currently almost 5.5 million electric vehicles in China, compared to the 4.1 million electric vehicles in Europe, more than double the number in 2019. In this section, the US ranks third, with a fleet of 2 million electric vehicles and FCVs, around half the number in Europe.
Using more stringent criteria, the true zero-emission passenger vehicle fleet, that is, excluding plug-in hybrids, has also nearly doubled in size since 2019. Total cumulative sales of zero-emission passenger vehicles reached $ 1,000. 8.5 million in mid-2021, up from just 4.6 million at the end of 2019.
Despite the higher proportion of PHEV in Europe remains the second largest ZEV market globally, after China. Currently, there are almost 4.3 million ZEVs in China, followed by Europe with 2.2 million, more than double the number in 2019. The US ranks third with a ZEV passenger fleet of around 40% than in Europe, with 1.3 million vehicles.
Check in this link these and other data related to zero emission vehicles included in the BNEF report.