Ethereum Classic (ETC) has outperformed Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), during the current cryptocurrency market rebound, with ETC/ETH pairs hitting 10-month highs.
Why is ETC outperforming ETH?
The price of ETC has risen to $27 on July 22, marking a 100% gain in nine days after bottoming out at $13.35. Compared, the price of ETH has seen a 64% rise in US dollar terms.
Ethereum’s rally has been one of the sharpest among major cryptocurrencies, not least due to the euphoria surrounding its potential network upgrade in September.
Dubbed “the Merge,” the long-awaited technical update will change Ethereum from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).
Anyone who believes the #Ethereum #Merge is priced in is smoking crack.
Nothing is priced-in in crypto, especially an event as convoluted and unprecedented as this.
But if I were a betting man, I’d say $ETH goes up prior to Merge, drops on Merge (unlocked coins), then goes
— Jeremy Gardner (@Disruptepreneur) July 21, 2022
Anyone who believes that the Ethereum Merge has a fixed price is smoking crack.
Nothing is priceless in cryptocurrencies, especially an event as complicated and unprecedented as this one.
But if I were a betting man, I’d say $ETH rises before the Merge, falls on the Merge (coins unlocked), and then goes
In addition, it will replace miners with stakers. As a result, the PoS switch could force existing Ethereum miners to switch to PoW chains.
Like is logic, Ethereum Classic is the most similar to Ethereum in terms of network design and compatibility, as Ethereum Classic is the legacy chain that was spun off from Ethereum following a controversial hard fork in July 2016.
Speculators expect Ethereum Classic to become the first choice for miners migrating from Ethereum, and this is probably one of the main reasons for the recent ETC price surge.
#ETC is not just pumping. It has a FIXED monetary policy! It is programmable! Yes all Dapps on #ETH can run on $ETC. After the #ETH 2.0 merge, miners like myself will call #EthereumClassic home. Retweet for CodeIsLaw! pic.twitter.com/sABGc72NUk
— Patient Money (@MoonTigerSt) July 19, 2022
The #ETC isn’t just going up. It has a FIXED monetary policy! It is programmable! Yes, all #ETH Dapps can work on $ETC. After the #ETH 2.0 merger, miners like me will call #EthereumClassic home. Retweet for CodeIsLaw!
ETC prices tilt lower in the short term
From a technical point of view, Ethereum Classic has been reeling under the pressure of its 200-day EMA (200-day EMA; the blue wave on the chart below) near $27.35.
The ETC/USD pair has witnessed a strong bearish rejection near the July 19 wave resistance, confirmed by the biggest spike in its daily trading volume in almost a year. Furthermore, the rejection came after testing the 0.382 Fib line around $27.47 as resistance.
ETC is now consolidating within the $22-$25 price range, with a provisional bias to the downside due to an “overbought” Relative Strength Index (RSI).
ETC faces a decline towards its 50 day EMA (the red wave) near $19 if it breaks decisively below $22, more than 25% below the current price.
Conversely, a successful break above $25 and the 200 day EMA could send ETC price above $30.
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