It can eradicate COVID-19? This is a question that we have asked ourselves ad nauseam since illness broke into our lives. We would like the answer to be yes, especially now that we have vaccines to combat it. However, it should be noted that throughout history only one human disease has been fully eradicated: smallpox.
Others have greatly reduced their incidence and have practically disappeared from many parts of the world. The measles, for example, became almost anecdotal in certain parts of the world, although the birth of the anti-vaccine groups has shown that the virus was still lurking there, waiting to find unimmunized people to attack.
The next disease that could be eradicated is considered to be polio. In fact, they have been eradicated two of its three serotypes and today it is found in very few places in the world. In August 2020, WHO declared Africa free from this virus and noted Pakistan and Afghanistan as the only places it still remains. Now, could COVID-19 be added to the list of eradicated diseases?
The truth is that, according to a study recently published in BMJ Global Health, it is something doable. So much so that it is even considered more feasible eradicate COVID-19 than polio itself.
More than polio, but less than smallpox
To find out how likely it is to eradicate COVID-19, a team of scientists from New Zealand research centers designed a curious scoring system.
In it, a total of 17 variables, That score from 0 to 3depending on how good they are at fighting a disease. These include, for example, the availability of a safe and effective vaccine, the government management, the impact of public health measures or the acceptance of the measures by the population.
Not only was COVID-19 tested. Too smallpox and polio, for being the only one eradicated and the one that is closest to disappearing.
Unsurprisingly, smallpox scored higher. Specifically, a 2.7, equivalent to 43 of the 48 points it could have achieved. But the most interesting thing is that COVID-19 was ahead of polio. By little, but above. COVID-19 obtained a 1.6 (28/51) and polio a 1.5 (26/51).
So, can COVID-19 be eradicated?
A 1.6 out of three means that eradicating COVID-19 is feasible, but unsure.
After all, many experts have already pointed out that it is very possible that we have to living with the virus. Possibly more attenuated, to the point where only the most vulnerable people need to be vaccinated. But even the authors of this study insist that it is too early to draw conclusions.
What this work does demonstrate is that both the government interest like that of the society they are essential for a disease to be ended. And they are only those that threaten large numbers of the population and seriously endanger the economy the ones that really attract that interest. The severity of the disease, as well as scientific and medical advances, have a lot to do with it, of course. But, as in so many other things in life, money rules. Also in cases like these.