Nerves are raw in the market after several days in which Bitcoin has been “stuck” in a small trading range.
Bitcoin (BTC) started on Oct. 13 with one of the classic swings around $19,000 as markets braced for crucial macroeconomic data.
No signs of upside ahead of key US data.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the BTC/USD pair threatening to fall at time of writing, with the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September just a few hours away.
Core inflation, forecast at 6.5% yoy according to a Bloomberg survey, could unsettle risk asset markets by showing a possible reversal of previously falling inflation numbers.
The CPI itself was expected to decline modestly, to 8.1%, from the previous 8.3% year-on-year increase.
“Markets sell as fears run high over today’s CPI data”, wrote Michaël van de Poppe, CEO and founder of trading firm Eight Global, in a new Twitter update:
“Perhaps the most anticipated data of the year.”
Known as a source of volatility, CPI data has often triggered unusual short-term price movements, both up and down, often reversing multiple times to catch opportunistic speculative trades.
Analyzing the composition of the market, data resource Material Indicators, meanwhile, noted that Binance whale orders increased after higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) figures were revealed the previous day.
“The whales are suppressing the price with $20 million in requests trying to get offers. The PPI has been higher than expected. The CPI and unemployment reports are due tomorrow at 8:30 am ET. Things are at about to get hot” summarized.
A back chart of the BTC/USD order book on Binance He showed a resistance group above the spot price, with a lack of support from the buyers well above $18,500.
The market “awaits the resolution” of the narrow range
As Cointelegraph reported, even before CPI day, Bitcoin had been unusually quiet.
Despite the unpredictability of risk asset markets in general at the current juncture, the largest cryptocurrency managed to maintain virtually non-existent volatility.
This in itself suggested a violent reversal was in the offing, the analysts explained, pointing to Bitcoin’s Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) as evidence.
On the day, the BVOL measured just under 23, one of the lowest levels ever recorded and seen only a handful of times in the life of Bitcoin.
“BTC’s range on longer time frames is so suppressed, BVOL is setting up for a big move,” warned the popular trading account; TMV Crypto.
TMV Crypto added that the market had been “stuck” for several days and had been “waiting for today to resolve,” referring to the CPI release.
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