First thing’s first. I wish you all a happy and prosperous new year. A special thanks to my regular readers who are always writing me with good and interesting comments. We can not complain. 2021 was not bad. Of course it was a complicated year in many ways. But if we go straight to the numbers, the numbers are pretty good. The Dow rose 19%. Nasdaq rose more than 22%, the S&P 500 more than 27% and Bitcoin more than 75%. I repeat: We cannot complain.
Ok I understand you. Certain. We did not meet the Bitcoin goal of $ 100,000 this year. But it is best to think in terms of growth. Did we grow up or not? Yes, we grew. While it is true that we did not grow (in percentage) as much as in 2020, we did grow significantly. In addition, the fact of not reaching 100K before the end of the year does not mean that we will never reach the goal. We have to see it as a delay. What happened? Well, things got complicated at the last minute. The logistics crisis, inflation, the pandemic, and announcements about a change in monetary policy. The development of new events changed things. In a matter of weeks, the future changed.
Many in this space are promising villas and castles to raise the spirits of investors. I guess predicting is free. In fact, many live on illusion. For some strange reason, many think that if we are optimistic, the market will meet our expectations. Will power or something like that. Ask the universe and it will be given to you. However, the smart investor does not fall for lies. In this business, you have to be cold and calculating. He who gets excited loses. Many on social media seek out followers by telling people exactly what they want to hear. There are plenty of charlatans here. Eye! I wish you good sense, discipline, patience, and a cool head. Welcome 2022!
Now, we talk about the most popular crypto news of this week.
Predictions in many ways are promotional campaigns. Investors get excited when they hear upbeat predictions. And the “influencers” understand this perfectly. The unsuspecting public, however, does not understand this dynamic. Naively, they think that these “people of importance” do, in effect, have a crystal ball to look at in the future. “Are you going to know more than Elon Musk?” A friend asked me to win an argument with low blows. “Elon Musk Says Bitcoin Will Hit $ 100,000 in December.” People generally do not understand that predictions are used to increase the price. They are a form of manipulation. Of course, I am not talking about serious studies. I mean the predictions made lightly on twitter. Elon Musk-style tweets. If he is correct, it is a prophecy that was fulfilled due to his clairvoyance, and if he fails, it was a joke. How convenient!
After the euphoria, comes the fall. In other words, extreme optimism is usually a reflection of greed. And greed is a sign that the end is near. The new news: The drop has not been so dramatic. What could be telling us that our supports are not that weak. In other words, it may be a temporary setback. A temporary panic.
Ah, the archetypal story of the boy genius. We have both elements. The purity of the child and the intelligence of the genius. So the kid is a genius for wanting cryptocurrencies. And cryptocurrencies are great for attracting a genius. That story is always a bestseller. Likewise, whale watching is always a box office hit. The hero who bought BTC in the early days for a few pennies and today is an eccentric billionaire. And we also have the tragic hero. It is about the character who has a lot of BTC in an inaccessible wallet because he lost his private key.
Here’s the idea for a Hollywood comic / movie. An anonymous whale finances a child genius to rescue lost BTC from a private keyless wallet putting the entire network at risk. Let’s say the private key lies in the mind of someone in a coma. Stars: Tom Cruise, Morgan Freeman, and Gal Gadot. With the stellar appearance of Satoshi Nakamoto. Hello Neflix!
The analyst who got the LUNA rise of 20% right points out 4 gaming cryptocurrencies that cost less than USD 10 and could rise up to 1,000% in 2022
The fashionable clickbait in the specialized press. He writes: Analyst says that 4 unknown cryptocurrencies will rise several Xs in a matter of weeks. Well, we will have a viral news. Like it or not, admit it. This is a highly speculative market. And now the greed levels among retailers investing in altcoins are through the roof. Small projects are volatile due to low liquidity. The promotion raises prices wildly. But what goes up tends to come down. There is money to be made. Of course. But we are dealing with very risky assets.
Lately, several news articles have been published talking about the same thing. That is, whales withdrawing from exchanges. Whales selling their holdings. Here’s something weird. It seems to me that there is a cat locked in all this. It is not typical for large investors to leave the market at times like this. This behavior is typical for retailers. As a general rule, retailers are a much more temperamental crowd. That is, they are more prone to fear. Now, assuming the data is correct. This atypical behavior on the part of whales may be the result of an atypical situation. There may be a rotation following the announcements of the Federal Reserve (FED).
A very revealing data may be the strength of the dollar. During the year 2021, the dollar experienced a staggering 6.7% rise. His best year since 2015. It’s not a fake. Many investors are hoarding dollars in anticipation of a slower-growing 2022.