Forecasts indicate that lithium production will have to grow more than 20 times if it wants to meet the demand for this material in 2050. That translates into a production of at least 11.2 million tons.
Since 2015, the world has produced a total of 2.7 million tons of lithiuma figure that is clearly insufficient to cover the needs of a society that is moving inexorably towards an electric world dependent on batteries.
We recently wondered if we really knew what we were doing by betting so heavily on the electric car and now is the time to reflect on how far the future can rely on currently existing lithium-ion batteries.
20 times more in 2050
According to the latest data released by Benchmark Mineral Intelligenceone of the main challenges facing the electric car and the automotive sector Energy storage is the need to increase lithium production.
In fact, these data and growth forecasts suggest that in 2050 it will be necessary 11.2 million tons of LCE (equivalent lithium carbonate), with ⅔ of them used for energy storage, since the growth of renewable energies will be very high.
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Already in 2032, the data indicates that 2.9 million tons will be needed, a figure slightly higher than the 2.7 million produced in the world in the last 7 years.
“The long-term path for lithium is set, but the challenge of scaling the supply chain has only just begun,” explains Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark. “What these data show is that we are only at the beginning of a generational challenge, not one that will be resolved in the 2020s.”.
Another shocking fact is that in 2040 the lithium extracted last year will serve to cover only one month’s demand, even if the supply from recycled batteries is available.
“Lithium miners and refiners not only have to sensibly scale their supply base within the economy of today and the near-term future,” Moores warns. “They should also try to plan for a global lithium-ion economy that is an order of magnitude larger than the current one”.
Sustainable growth and recycling
In 2035, the European Union will only allow the sale of electric cars in its territory. And before then, multiple car companies will have abandoned the combustion engine.
This, together with the incredible rise of renewable energyindicates that the demand for lithium for batteries will grow in a way that the world is currently not prepared for.
In 2015, electric vehicles accounted for just 39% of battery demand, rising to 79% this year. In addition, both the United States and the European Union have committed to having zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050while China has set such a goal for 2060.
“It is crucial for equipment manufacturers, electric vehicle producers and battery cell manufacturers to make important and sometimes uncomfortable decisions when investing in the long-term supply of critical generational minerals, especially for lithium,” he says. Moores. “On the contrary, automakers will miss their targets, governments will miss net zero by 2050 and market volatility will stay in the market much longer.”
According to the data provided by BMI, in 2050 234 new lithium mines would be necessary to meet the demand forecast, so battery recycling seems crucial to alleviate this.
Currently, only 40 mines produce lithium in the world and BMI forecasts that in 2040 the production of this material from recycling will be 20%. Will the industry be able to cope with the demand for lithium or you will find reliable and profitable new technologies that reduce the need for this material?