It is widely known that the fate of the cryptocurrency market depends largely on the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC), which makes times like these ideal for traders to prefer to invest in altcoins.
When the price of BTC goes down, altcoins tend to follow, but when a bottom starts, altcoins tend to go higher during Bitcoin consolidation phases and this usually leads traders to say that an “alt-season” will start. “. Although Bitcoin’s current drop below $30,000 shows that it is a bit premature to talk of an alt-season, analysts continue to plot a variety of different results that point to the start of an uptrend for altcoins. Let’s take a look.
ETH/BTC price action could be an early indicator
The view of the possibility of an alt-season using the ETH/BTC chart as an indicator was discussed by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user PlanDeFi, who posted the following chart comparing the 2016 to 2017 performance of the ETH/BTC pair. against performance seen in 2021 and 2022.
PlanDeFi said:
“They look a lot alike, don’t they? Accumulation>Breakout>Rising Channel>Breakout. The market is bigger now, it just takes longer.”
Based on the projection provided, the next alt-season could start sometime after the beginning of July and has the potential to run until the end of 2022.
A fractal from 2017 suggests an impending alt-season
Further evidence that the market may be approaching a turning point was provided by El_Crypto_Prof, who published the chart below looking at the history of altcoin market capitalization.
The_Crypto_Prof said:
“When it comes to altcoins, I can see the following scenario happening. There are too many similarities to the previous cycle. The RSI looks amazing too. The next bullish wave will leave many behind.”
The market is firmly in a “Bitcoin season”
Although fractals look good and give hope to desperate traders, most fail to materialize and are not accurate analysis methods to rely on when making trades.
The “Altseason indicator” provides a more metric-based method of predicting when the market is in a “Bitcoin season” or “alt-season”.
Based on the chart above, it doesn’t look like an alt-season is coming any time soon, as the metric is currently reading 24, while the level needed to signal an alt-season is 75.
Based on the past performance of the index, it has taken a minimum of 2-3 months to rise from the zone that indicates we are in a Bitcoin season to the alt-season level. Current projections, according to the indicator, suggest that an uptrend for altcoins might not start until August or September.
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