Mexico will stop importing gasoline in 2024which will be achieved in part by the start of production of the refinery of two mouthswhich will be fulfilled at the same time with the call “energy sovereignty”according to the president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)just last Friday during his fifth government report.
Energy sovereignty, interpreted by this government as the end of gasoline imports, is one of its main objectives.
It is argued that the production of petroleum products, where gasoline is included, It will be one of the big steps in an apparently converted Mexican energy market.
We do not know if the goal of stopping importing gasoline will be achieved in the 12 months that the current administration has left. However, what we can analyze is how Mexico is currently in gasoline production, and from there try to make a scenario about how much our country will have to produce in the coming months to achieve the long-awaited “energy sovereignty.”
Mexico produces only 40% of its gasoline demand
The figures are not from autonomous organizations, nor are they from analysts or international organizations, all of them disqualified in advance by the country’s current federal administration.
Data from the Ministry of Energy (Sener) indicate that the national oil company, that is, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), produces, at least until the end of the first half of the year, only 40 percent of the national demand for gasoline.
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If the data is true, remember that at least they are official, that would mean that our country should produce at least the remaining 60 percent of the demand for gasoline. How much is that in barrels of oil?
Production levels should increase like never before
Gasoline production levels in Mexico by Pemex must increase like never before and in a few months, in order to achieve the objective of “energy sovereignty”, it is not impossible, but it is complicated under the current scenario.
According to Sener figures, Pemex produced a daily average of 299,600 barrels of gasoline during the first half of 2023.
In contrast, the average daily demand for gasoline in the country was 739,000 barrels; This leads us to a daily deficit of 439,400 barrels of gasoline, 60 percent of the daily demand, which of course is imported, including the production of Deer Park since gasoline is produced abroad, it is a net import of energy, although the refinery now belongs to the Mexican oil company.
These figures are from the end of last semester and so far it is probable that very little or nothing has changed, therefore this is how we arrive at the current scenario of the start of operations of the Dos Bocas refinery, which according to the government itself On September 1, it began to produce oil products.
This refinery could produce up to 290,000 barrels of gasoline per day at its maximum capacitywhich according to the government should be reached next December, that is, only three months after the start of production.
Considering that they achieve the objective and in such a short time take the refinery to its maximum capacity, that is to say that in December before the end of the year it would be producing 290,000 barrels of oil per day, national production would increase to 79.78 percent of the national average daily demand for gasoline, without a doubt a vertiginous increase. We repeat, as long as in the next 3 months the Dos Bocas refinery reaches its maximum production capacity.
In any case, the remaining 20 percent of the national daily demand for gasoline would still need to be produced.approximately 149,400 barrels of oil per day.
How would it be possible to produce the rest of the gasoline included in the daily demand? It would be a minor problem considering that some coking plants would also come into operation in the coming months.
It is not up to us to say whether the government will achieve the desired objective or not; With the elements we have today, what stands out is that there are 13 months left, apparently the new Pemex refinery will reach its maximum production capacity within three months, in what would be a world historical record (no refinery in the world has achieved the feat of reaching its production peak in such a short time; in fact, the average exceeds a year and a half). Achieving this objective will be decisive, not reaching it will make it very difficult for us to have the long-awaited energy self-sufficiency in just 9 more months.
The production of oil products in Mexico and in the world is not a factor that increases overnight, in the coming months we could see something unprecedented in our country and in the entire planet, or perhaps what will have been a good intention .
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