- By analyzing the value of Bitcoin together with its mining profitability it is feasible to be able to project the growth of the Bitcoin hashrate over the next 12 months.
- To carry out this analysis, Cryptonomist analyzed the trend of the last three years.
- In case the value of BTC reaches above $ 70 thousand dollars, the hashrate could even increase during the year by more than 100%.
With each new year, the various speculations begin to appear, about how the Bitcoin hashrate will move in the new cycle to begin and this 2022 is no exception, since the enthusiasts of crypto assets they have already begun to speculate about whether it will double this year.
To try to answer the question, it is necessary to carry out an analysis of the last three years, to provide an outline of where it will go this year.
Mining profitability and value of Bitcoin
At this time, but 2019, the global registered hashrate was approximately 40 Ehash / s. Also, a year ago the price of crypto asset Bitcoin It was close to $ 4 thousand dollars, which is why the viability of the mining activity of this asset was less than $ 0.2 dollars per day per THash / s.
Therefore, If you want to know what the movements of the Bitcoin hashrate will be in 2022, it is necessary to analyze what the behavior of mining profitability has been in the last three years.
The value of Bitcoin three years ago, registered on January 3, 2019, was $ 3,857 per unit. At that time, its value had collapsed from previous months due to a conflict between Bitcoin SV and Bitcoin Cash, but by the fifth month of the year, the value of the asset regained strength and was located above the $ 5,000 dollars, a fact that allowed the profitability of the crypto currency to increase, reaching close to $ 0.25 dollars per THash / s per day.
This growth was not directly reflected in the hashrate as it was due to a restoration of assets from the reduction presented in the previous months.
For the second half of 2019, there was an unexpected growth in the crypto digital market, due to the announcement of the social network Facebook, of its project to enter the world of cryptocurrencies through Libra, now Diem.
The announcement of the CEO of the firm, Mark Zuckerberg, hit hard in the crypto world, to such a degree that the price of the so-called “digital gold” rose to over $ 12 thousand dollars, in addition to its viability approaching $ 0.5 dollars. This unforeseen increase did have an impact on the hashrate of Bitcoin mining, reason why managed to reach 100 Ehash / s at the end of the third quarter of 2019.
Slow growth of the hashrate
In that period, the value of Satoshi Nakamoto’s asset returned to $ 8 thousand dollars, however, this decrease did not greatly affect the hashrate. In accordance with Cryptonomist the fact that the hashrate changes very slowly, especially chen it is on the rise it is because at that time more machines are being attached to those already registered.
Also, to have the best possible performance and get the most out of these devices, they must be configured, which is why it can take a long time for the hash rate to reflect growth.
This could be clearly seen in January 2020, when the hashrate continued to oscillate between 80 and 120 Ehash / s. This figure began to change until the second month of the year, at which time there was an increase that allowed it to reach 140.
In this span of time, the value of the crypto asset Bitcoin again reported growth, this time placing itself in the $ 10 thousand dollarss. However, unlike other occasions, profitability presented a decline, reaching $ 0.15 per day.
Likewise, after a crash in financial markets occurred to the third month of 2020, which caused the price of Bitcoin to fall again until it reached approximately the $ 4 thousand dollars for a short period, a new period began to be registered, this time a longer period of increase in the hashrate.
The development was constant, so By May 2021, the hashrate managed to reach 200 Ehash / s, before the People’s Republic of China decided to impose a series of sanctions on cryptocurrencies and to the miners in its territory, an event that caused the departure of many people from the country whose economic activities were linked to crypto assets.
It should be said that, in this period, the price of Bitcoin grew exponentially, lbequeathing up to $ 65 thousand dollars. Profitability also registered an interesting growth, since it managed to go from $ 0.15 to $ 0.45. It was precisely this rise that did have a direct impact on the hash, allowing it to increase its rate.
Forecast for 2022
Therefore, after having analyzed the behavior of the hash over a period of three years, and having observed that its profitability has generally been close to 0.2 dollars per day per Thash / s, it is perfectly feasible that it will return at some point. at these levels.
Considering these figures, it can be suspected that assuming the value of Nakamoto’s asset does not grow there is a low chance the hashrate to double. This would only happen in case the value of Bitcoin reaches above $ 60 thousand dollars again. In case the value of BTC reaches above $ 70 thousand dollars, the hashrate could even increase during the year by more than 100%.
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