The Bitcoin community is essentially rebellious. It’s obviously countercultural. Twitter users know what I mean. Bitcoin is not just any code. It is a code that certainly arouses passions. Also it’s an aspiration. On the one hand, we have a community eager for reform. And on the other hand, we have a narrative that makes promises of a better future.
It doesn’t take a genius to recognize that a “stereotypical bitcoiner” is the “gold bug” of the digital age. That is to say, we return to the eternal debate of the most conservative groups that yearn for a pre-Keynesian world. Here are several ideas that come together. The free market is perfect. The state should not intervene in the economy. A hard currency is ideal. Technology works miracles. Statism is the origin of all economic ills. Now these ideas are more travel than cupping. They are not “bitcoiner” ideas as such. Utopia is quite old. The new is the escape route. What happens is that many people with these old ideas adopted Bitcoin in its early stage. I am referring to the most “techno-savy” current of libertarians, anarcho-capitalists and conservatives. Now dWe must remember that this is more political than economic.
In Latin America, these groups are usually not very popular. However, in most cases, it is very difficult not to sympathize with this anti-statist spirit after having experienced the radical left firsthand. So, for many young Latin Americans from the middle and upper class listening to the ideas of american libertarians is music to the ears. The enemy of my enemy is my friend or something. Radicalism in power generates radicalism in the opposition. So after a certain point, the truth is irrelevant. The rancor between groups is so great that victory is more important than the truth. The other is always wrong. The other is always guilty. We are diametrically different and there is no possible reconciliation.
Now, the rebellious tribe adopts a narrative. This narrative is a totally complete language. And, compulsorily, it must be different from the language handled by “The Establishment”. The tribe has its own experts, its own concepts and its own hypotheses. In fact, the tribe runs a cult. The cult is pure and noble. The outside is evil. The cult is the family. The outside is the enemy. The cult will obtain the final victory. The enemies are idiots who will be crushed.
Libertarians typically speak for the entire Bitcoin community to promote their libertarian utopia. So, one might fall under the impression that the success of Bitcoin and the success of libertarian ideas go hand in hand. On the other hand, aspiration is not partial growth. This is total growth. In other words, “Bitcoin will take over the world in its entirety.” According to many, buying Bitcoin is a kind of vote for the libertarian world.
Now, let’s escape the madness of Twitter and Youtube. Let’s ignore all that noise for a moment and Let’s review the cheese of this toast directly. doHow is the Bitcoin community really set up? What is the rate of its growth? What are your values and beliefs? What is the real motivation behind a Bitcoin purchase?
The best way to get to know a country is to study its people. It’s not watching the movie. In my opinion, the same is true in the case of Bitcoin. It is best not to listen to the narrative of a few. It is best to study the entire community directly.
First, Bitcoin is a predominantly “millennial” and “male” phenomenon. It is a fairly educated and relatively wealthy sector, source. In the United States, Europe and Asia (Far East), speculation is king. We practically have a wall street on steroids. And, in other parts like Latin America, Africa, and Asia (Central, South), especially in countries with strong exchange controls, we have more emphasis on P2P sharing, source. This could be indicating that are convenience users seeking to reduce friction in their financial systems. It is estimated that we have around 300 million users worldwide: 25 million in the United States, 24 million in Latin America, 32 million in Europe, 160 million in Asia, and one million in Oceania. Source.
As for the price, users in the United States are particularly relevant. In the first place, because the investors (the capital) in the United States have a lot of weight. And, secondly, because investors around the world closely follow what happens in the United States in terms of finances and markets. Now, in the United States, millennials make up about 36% of the workforce, but own only 5% of the wealth. Baby Boomers own 52.2%, Generation X owns 27.6%, and the Silent Generation owns 15.2%. Source.
Now in the field of ideology. While it is true that the early members of the community were mostly politically motivated libertarians, over time, a new majority has emerged motivated primarily by profit. Which implies that the community is much more diverse in ideas than it is thought. According to a study published in 2018 by Coindesk, by then, the community had the following inclinations: Socialist 9%, Liberal 27%, Centrist 9%, Conservative 21%, Libertarian 24% and Anarcho-capitalist 8%.
What does this all mean? It means that the Bitcoin narrative we hear on social media does not represent the entire community. What creates a disarticulation between narrative and reality. yesmeans that speculation and investment are the real motivators. Y it means that millennials are not (yet) that powerful economically.
Now let’s talk about the future. Here are my predictions. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have a long future ahead of them. But it is very unlikely that the “Bitcoin of the libertarians” has a future. Over time, libertarian ideas within the community will lose even more weight. The community will be moderated due to a greater entry of people of all kinds. Regulation is a necessary evil in order to capture money from older generations who prefer to invest in regulated markets. I mean, we are becoming more like Wall Street and less like an underground political group.
The relative poverty of millennials implies that purchasing power has a ceiling. However, over time, millennials will have more money to invest. With age, thanks to work and savings, the ability to invest will surely improve. And the transfers of wealth due to the deaths of the older generations will increase the wealth of the younger generations. Of course this will be a long process. We’re not talking about a couple of years. It’s about decades. We could expect slower processes and more moderation within an increasingly diverse community. Radicalism is typical of small niches. And Bitcoin is becoming a giant.
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