Bitcoin inflows across all exchanges have been net negative since July, but four major exchanges have bucked this trend. with an almost equal amount of net positive inflows.
There have been a total of 46,000 BTC net outflows (worth about $1.8 billion at current prices) from all cryptocurrency exchanges since the month of July.
Only Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex and FTX have seen positive net inflows of 207,000 Bitcoin (BTC)according to data from Monday’s bulletin from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. During the same time frame, net outflows have amounted to 253,000 BTC across all other exchanges analyzed.
FTX and Huobi have seen the most dramatic change in their BTC holdings since last July. Although FTX has more than tripled the amount of BTC it holds to 103,200 today, Huobi’s holdings are down to just 12,300 BTC, or about 6% of what it held, from over 400,000 BTC in March 2020.
Net outflows have been steady since last year, with some major spikes in August and most recently on January 11.
However, Glassnode attributes the current relatively low inflows to “the scale of uncertainty in the market today”, and suggests that, in general, the cryptocurrency trading market has shifted towards derivatives trading over spot sales in order to hedge risk.
Exchange inflows are measured to help better understand whether investors are preparing to liquidate or trade their coins. Net inflows show incoming selling pressure, while net outflows suggest higher holding.
Coins that remain on-chain maintain a realized price of $24,100 per BTC, suggesting that most hodlers enjoy a 63% profit margin.. The realized price is the average price of all coins when they have moved on-chain.
The realized price contrasts with an implied price of USD 39,200. The implied price is an estimated fair value price per coin and is currently just below break-even, as BTC was trading at $38,346 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.
At the moment, short-term holders are 15% underwater as the median price of coins that have moved on-chain in the last 155 days is $46,400according to Glassnode.
In addition to the low volume of entries and exits, the seller’s PnL ratio has been demonstrably flattening since the beginning of 2021. Glassnode suggests that long-term (LTH) holders are getting tired of selling even though “we have yet to see a major LTH capitulation event as seen in previous cyclical funds.” And he adds:
“The historically low magnitude of both STH and LTH losses may signal an increased likelihood of aggregate seller exhaustion.”
The bulletin warns that The risk of a “final and complete capitulation of both STH and LTH” remains, as has occurred at the lows of previous cycles.
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