Bitcoin retests its lower support and if this happens, UNI, ICP, AAVE and QNT could break to the upside
Bitcoin (BTC) price has lost ground over the weekend as investors remain cautious ahead of US consumer inflation data to be released on July 13. Analysts expect June’s consumer price index to be higher than May’s 8.6% level.
Due to macro uncertainty, investors are not confident that the Bitcoin price correction is over. Nevertheless, Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer said that Bitcoin is back to 2013 bull market levels “if you consider the price per million non-null addresses” to value it. That implies that “Bitcoin is cheap”.
- What effect could an economic downturn have on the price of Bitcoin?
Readings of the Reserve Risk Indicator, which shows the sentiment of long-term holders, plunged to a new record low in July.. Commenter Murad said that this meant that “we are in the bottom zone of the high time frame” or the indicator might have stopped working.
Could the price of Bitcoin reverse and start a new rally or will it continue to go down? Are altcoins showing signs of bottoming out? Let’s study the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin price broke above the symmetrical triangle pattern on July 7, but the bulls were unable to maintain the momentum at higher levels. This suggests that the bears have not given up and are trying to defend the overhead resistance at $23.363.
The bears are attempting to sustain the price below the 20-day exponential moving average ($21,230). If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the support line of the triangle.
If the price bounces off this level, it will suggest that the bulls are continuing to buy at lower levels. The bulls will once again try to push the price above the resistance at $23.363 and the 50-day SMA ($24.692).. If they succeed, it could mean the start of a new upward movement.
On the contrary, If the price breaks below the support line, the bears will endeavor to drop the pair below $17.622.
The bears dropped the price below the 20-EMA, but a small bright spot is that the bulls are trying to defend the 50-SMA.. This indicates accumulation in the lower levels. If the bulls push the price back above the 20-EMA, the pair could rally towards $22,500.
Secondly, if the price turns down from the 20 EMA, the probability of a break below the 50 SMA increases. If this happens, the pair could extend its decline to $19,300. The flattening of the 20-EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage to the bulls or the bears..
- 150,000 BTC release from Mt. Gox could be a “black swan” event for Bitcoin
UNI/USDT
Uniswap (UNI) broke above the overhead resistance at $6.08, completing a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern.. The bears are attempting to push the price back below the breakout level.
If they do, they will suggest that the rally above $6.08 may have been a bull trap. That could push the price towards the 20-day EMA ($5.39). If the price bounces off this level strongly, it could increase the chance of a break above $6.62.. In that case, the pair could pick up momentum and rally towards the pattern target of $8.78.
On the contrary, if the price breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The UNI/USDT pair could remain range bound for a few days.
The bears dropped the price below the breakout level of $6.08, but the significant bounce off the 20-EMA shows aggressive buying at the lower levels.. The buyers will make another attempt to push the price above $6.62 and resume the uptrend.
On the contrary, if the price falls and breaks below the 20 EMA, the bears will try to catch the aggressive bulls. Then the pair could fall to the 50-SMA. If this level is also broken, the decline could extend to $4.60.
- After the fall of Terra, prepare for the stablecoin era
ICP/USDT
Internet Computer (ICP) broke out of the 50-day SMA ($6.48) on Jul 8, indicating that the bulls are attempting to bottom out. The moving averages are close to completing a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, which suggests that the bears may be losing their grip.
If the price breaks out of the moving averages, it will suggest that the bulls have turned the level into support.. That could open the doors to a possible rally to the psychological $10 level, where the bears could once again pose a major challenge.
Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will indicate that the bears are still selling aggressively at higher levels. The ICP/USDT pair could then drop to $5, which is likely to act as strong support.
The long wicks on several candlesticks above $7 indicate that the bears have not given up yet and continue to sell on the rallies. The bears pushed the price back below the 20 EMA, but a minor upside is that the bulls bought aggressively during the decline. This suggests that there is demand at lower levels.
The buyers are trying to push the price back above the 20-EMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $6.70 and then $7..
On the contrary, If the price breaks away from the overhead resistance and drops below $6.30, the pair could slide to the 50-SMA.
- Related: According to Bitcoin Bull Michael Saylor, Ethereum Is “Obviously” a Security
AAVE/USDT
AAVE rally broke above the 50-day SMA ($79) on Jul 9, signaling a likely trend reversal. The 20-day EMA ($68) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive zone, which indicates that the bulls are trying to gain the upper hand.
If the bulls sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, the AAVE/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally towards the $100 psychological resistance.. This level can act as a strong hurdle, but if the bulls stop the next drop above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the buyers are back in the game. The pair could then attempt a rally towards $120.
On the contrary, if the price sustains below the 50-day SMA, the bulls will continue to sell on the rallies. Then the bears will endeavor to push the pair below the 20-day EMA and catch the aggressive bulls.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair broke above $78 and completed a bullish ascending triangle pattern. The bears pushed the price back below the breakout level, but a positive sign is that the buyers are defending the 20-EMA.
If the price turns up and breaks above $83, the pair could pick up momentum and rally to $93.. The pattern target of this bullish setup is $110.
The bears will have to push the price back below the 20-EMA to invalidate this positive view.. That could open the doors to a possible drop to the 50-SMA.
QNT/USDT
Quant (QNT) has risen sharply in recent days, indicating that it may have bottomed out. Momentum picked up after buyers pushed the price above $67.
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating a possible change in trend. The move up is facing a major hurdle near $90.
If the price turns below this resistance but bounces off the 20-day EMA ($64), it will suggest that sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying the dips.. That could increase the prospects for a rally to the psychological $100 level.
This positive view could be invalidated in the short term if the price continues to decline and breaks below $67 again..
Sellers try to stop the move higher at $90, but the rising moving averages and the RSI in positive territory indicate that the bulls have the upper hand.. If the price bounces off the 20-EMA, the buyers could push the price back towards $90. The breakout and close above this resistance could signal the resumption of the short-term uptrend.
This positive view could be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA. In that case, the pair could go down to the 50-SMA..
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. All investments and trading involve risk, so you should do your own research when making a decision.
Keep reading:
- What effect could an economic downturn have on the price of Bitcoin?
- 150,000 BTC release from Mt. Gox could be a “black swan” event for Bitcoin
- After the fall of Terra, prepare for the stablecoin era
- Seoul to launch native cryptocurrency throughout the city as part of its smart city development
- At tax time, who really owns that cryptocurrency anyway? – Expert opinion
- David Shrier: “The most successful blockchain application is Bitcoin, it is worth more than 100,000 million dollars”
- Ethereum’s failure to close above $1,300 has analysts forecasting further declines