Bitcoin (BTC) surged after the Wall Street open on June 14 as analysts expected long-term support to have been preserved.
Hopes for “relief” at the FOMC meeting
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked the BTC/USD pair as it traded above $22,500 at press time, having hit local highs of $23,300 on the day.
The pair had bounced sharply after approaching $20,800, and traditional markets also rallied after the inflation panic in the US.
As for the direction Bitcoin could take, on-chain analysis resource Material Indicators noted that the market had retraced the 200-day simple moving average (200-MA), a major feature of Bitcoin bear markets that acted as support in previous price cycles.
However, it was “too early to tell” whether the 200-day simple moving average would remain an attractive area, according to a tweet, as the Fed is due to signal inflation on June 15.
#BTC just reclaimed the 200 Week MA. Some decent bid liquidity seen on #FireCharts, but too early to tell if it will hold. Expect all eyes to be on the #FOMC conference Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/OEV18iTSrD
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) June 14, 2022
Most social media commentators kept an eye on the Fed, as expectations showed that most were now in favor of an exaggerated rate hike next: 75 basis points instead of 50.
Tomorrow’s FOMC expectations are weighted heavily towards extreme 150-175 bps rate hikes pic.twitter.com/l5EW64mnvP
— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) June 14, 2022
“Currently the market is giving a 96% chance that the Fed will make a 75bps hike on Wednesday. The market had recently been pricing in a 50bps hike, but last week’s inflation data changed that sentiment. (Last week , at this time, there was a 4% chance of a rise of 75 basis points),” wrote the popular Twitter account @tedtalksmacro in one of his tweets of the day.
added that a 50-point rally would mean both stocks and cryptocurrencies “should go up very strongly,” while volatility was timed to mimic a “sell the rumour, buy the news” event.
“Maybe they’ll provide some relief,” coincided Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb in his own post.
Time to buy, says metric in green for the first time since $3,600
Meanwhile, excitement was building for an on-chain metric hitting the “buy” zone for the first time since March 2020.
The MVRV-Z score, an expression of how many standard deviations the spot price is away from the realized price, returned to negative territory as the BTC/USD pair dipped below $23,400.
The MVRV-Z has historically captured Bitcoin’s generating price bottoms, and buying into its green zone has led to significant returns.
Cointelegraph reported on the significance of Bitcoin’s realized price earlier in the week.
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