¡its here, its arrived! The last and great event of the 2021-2022 awards season will be held this Sunday, March 27, at the Kodak Theater in Los Angeles; and in Espinof we bring you our pool of predictions with the films, filmmakers and performers who we believe will emerge victorious in the 94 Oscar award ceremony.
Oscar Awards 2022: Quiniela and favorites of the film gala
Then I leave you with our favorites to get the precious statuette in an evening that is much closer than expected, and that predicts a distribution of prizes in one of those “everyone wins” that are so fashionable.
Best film
Nominated:Belfast, CODADon’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, The Williams Way, Licorice Pizza, Alley of Lost Souls, Power of the Dog, West Side Story
The favourite: Over the last few months, ‘The Power of the Dog’ has positioned itself as the absolute favorite to win the night’s jackpot after winning the BAFTA, the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice in the category; but things could go wrong for the Netflix feature film after the boost received by ‘CODA’ after winning the SAG for best cast —which is usually associated with the Oscar for best film. The thing is very close, but every time it smells more like the bell of Apple TV +.
best direction
Nominated: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Paul Thomas Anderson, Jane CampionSteven Spielberg
The favorite: In the category of best direction there is no competition worth, which reinforces the theory of “ELBOW” in the best film. Jane Campion has all the ballots to take the cat to the water after reaping the BAFTA, the award of the union of directors (DGA) and the Golden Globe -among many others from different unions and associations-. If there is any surprise, she could go in the direction of Kenneth Branagh, but it doesn’t seem too likely.
Best leading actress
Nominated: Jessica Chastain (Tammy Faye’s Eyes)Olivia Colman (The Dark Daughter), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
The favourite: We may be facing the closest category of the night, and that is that, when it comes to the Oscar for best actress, there is no crystal ball and we could expect any surprises —including Kristen Stewart after the puncture in the SAG and the BAFTAs. Since the Academy really likes those roles that transform the performers under a good layer of makeup, our bet goes to Jessica Chastain and hers to Tammy Faye. The competition is fierce, yes.
Best Leading Actor
nominees: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom), Will Smith (The Williams Method)Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
The favorite: There is no doubt that the performer who is benefiting the most from this awards season is Will Smith. His role in ‘The Williams Method’ has served him to scratch the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, and the prize of the union of actors (SAG); so he has the best position to get the Oscar this 2022. The fourth nomination is the charm.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominated: Jessie Buckley (The Dark Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)Kristen Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (The Williams Method), Judi Dench (Belfast)
The favourite: Another category in which there is practically no room to catch the public off guard with an unexpected prize. Ariana DeBose, in addition to being overwhelming in each of her scenes in ‘West Side Story’, arrives at the Oscar night with the BAFTA, the Golden Globe and the SAG under her arm; another hat-trick that will probably result in a victory on Sunday the 27th. If there was a surprise, recognition of Kristen Dunst’s career would not hurt.
Best Supporting Actor
nominees: Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA)Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
The favorite: Among the nominees for best supporting actor there are real titans like JK Simmons or Jesse Plemons, but everything seems to suggest that Troy Kotsur will raise an award again on Sunday after his victories at the SAGs, and the BAFTAs for his role in ‘CODA ‘ — in fact, it may be the best thing about the movie. However, there is competition with Kodi Smit-McPhee, the second candidate on the list who has received nominations in all the big events of the year along with Kotsur.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominated: BelfastKenneth BranaghDon’t Look Up (Adam McKay and David Sirota), The Williams Method (Zack Baylin), Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson), The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt)
The favourite: Anything can happen here. ‘Belfast’ won the Golden Globe, ‘Licorice Pizza’ with the BAFTA, and ‘Don’t look up’ with the award from the writers’ union (WGA), so the most widespread theory is that of the prizes distributed among the big nominees. If ‘CODA’ wins best picture and Jane Campion wins best direction, the best original screenplay could go to Paul Thomas Anderson or Kenneth Branagh. A boat soon, we opted for the second.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominated: CODA (Siân Heder)Drive My Car (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe), Dune (Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth), The Dark Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal), The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
The favourite: There is much less to guess here. ‘CODA’ has won the BAFTA, the Writers Guild Award and the Golden Globe in the category, and the only film that could overshadow it is ‘The Dark Daughter’, which surprised at the Spirit Awards. Be careful, if they also win this one, Sian Heder’s tape could make a full and take three out of three.
best international film
Nominated: Flee (Denmark), It was the hand of God (Italy), Drive My Car (Japan)Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
The favourite: In this case, the Japanese feature film is the best positioned to win the Oscar for best film. ‘Drive My Car’ has not only won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, the Spirit Award and a good handful of awards in the season; He has also fallen in love on the festival circuit, triumphing at events such as Cannes. If there was a bell, I would give it ‘The worst person in the world’, but it is very unlikely considering that the Japanese film competes in three categories and should not leave empty.
best animated film
Nominated: Flee, Luca, CharmThe Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon
The favourite: Justice says ‘The Mitchells against the machines’, but logic loudly shouts ‘Charm’. The almighty Disney seems to be destined to lift the Oscar thanks to its great musical and cinematographic media bombardment and to go over Pixar, and its lucid ‘Luca’ and a ‘Flee’ that deserves all the awards in the world.
best documentary
Nominated: Ascension, Attica, fleeSummer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), Writing With Fire
The favourite: In the category of best documentary there is also no clear winner. If we go by logic, ‘Flee’ should win at least one of the three awards it is up for after making history at the Oscars with its triple nomination —best international, animated and documentary film—, and its magnificent reception by critics of everyone precedes it, but ‘Summer of Soul’ could prevail in a photo finish of the tightest.
best montage
Nominated: Don’t look up, Dune, Williams methodThe power of the dog, Tick, Tick… Boom!
The favourite: More unknowns in the category of best montage. A priori, ‘The Williams method’ starts with an advantage having won the editors’ union award (ACE), taking ahead of ‘Dune’, ‘The power of the dog’ and ‘Tick, Tick… Boom!’; but the lack of consensus in the Critics Choice —’West Side Story’— and the BAFTAs —’No time to die’— mean that the sports drama does not start as a clear winner.
Best Director of Photography
Nominated: The Alley of Lost Souls, The Power of the Dog, dunesThe Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
The favourite: The competition for the Oscar for best cinematography is, directly, wild. The works of Kaminski and Delbonnell for ‘West Side Story’ and ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth’ are enormous and worthy of study, but everything indicates that it will be Greg Fraser and his ‘Dune’ —shot digitally and transferred to a negative to take advantage of what best of each format—who will win the statuette after amassing a BAFTA and the ASC union award.
Better visual effects
Nominated: Free Guy, No time to die, dunesShang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home
The favourite: The case of ‘Dune’ suggests one of those in which the absence in the major categories will be compensated with a good handful of technical Oscars, including the best visual effects. Its commented combination between CGI and practical effects is at a stratospheric level that leaves its rivals in diapers —despite the good work of ‘No time to die’—. Marvel, with two nominations, is not even expected on stage.
Best music
Nominated: The power of the dog, Enchantment, Parallel mothers, dunesdon’t look up
The favourite: One more for Dune, and it couldn’t be more justified. Hans Zimmer’s work in Denis Villeneuve’s film could help him win his second Oscar after ‘The Lion King’, and all eyes are on him after his BAFTA and Golden Globe wins. it is likely that it was given by Johnny Greenwood for ‘The Power of the Dog’.
Other categories
To close our pool, we are going to collect the favorites in the remaining categories, starting with the best original song, whose Oscar will more than likely go to Lin-Manuel Miranda for ‘Two Little Caterpillars’which can be heard on ‘Encanto’.
In the panorama of short films, ‘The wiper’ could give us the great joy of the night with Alberto Mielgo bringing the statuette to Spain in the animation category.** ‘The Queen of Basketball’ and ‘The Long Goodbye’** —the latter with Riz Ahmed’s name as a great attraction— would do the same in documentary and real-action fiction.
Makeup and hairdressing will probably go to ‘Tammy Faye’s eyes’ in recognition of the characterization of Jessica Chastain, while the Oscars for best sound, production design and costumes, will go directly to ‘dune’the latter being at odds with the ‘cruella’ from Disney.