Thanks to his wide lead, a victory could give Verstappen the championship this weekend, with five races to go. For this, he will need a bad day from Charles Leclerc and that his teammate Sergio Pérez does not accompany him on the podium.
The smashing season of Max Verstappen, who is on course to break Sebastian Vettel’s record of 13 victories, already seems hopelessly headed for an early coronation. With eleven wins to his credit with six races to go and a 116-point lead over Charles LeclercThe big question is when this event will occur. The numbers clearly indicate that the East Asia mini-tour could be the key moment, as then there will only be 112 points left at stake.
For this reason, it is most likely that Verstappen will celebrate his second championship at the emblematic Suzuka circuit, where it would also coincide in date, venue and remaining races with what was Vettel’s second title eleven years ago. However, the Dutch He already has his first ‘match point’ this weekend in Singapore if the right conditions exist. The essential requirement to meet, yes, is that the Red Bull driver obtains his 12th victory in Marina Bay this season.
Victory essential for Verstappen’s championship swap at Marina Bay
In this case, the swaps that matter to consider the championship sentenced not only involve the Monegasque from Ferrari, but also Sergio Perez, third in the table, 125 points behind his teammate. In the event that Verstappen adds the fastest lap to his win, he will need Leclerc finishes at most in the eighth position, and that Pérez does not reach podium positions. In these cases, you would leave Singapore with at least the 138 points advantage needed to secure the title.
If on the contrary, Verstappen wins without setting the fastest lap, the position Leclerc would have to finish in happens to be ninth, regardless of whether or not the Ferrari driver gets the fastest lap. This is not the case with Pérez, who would have to be fifth if he gets it for Verstappen to be champion, an unlikely scenario a priori. Otherwise, a fourth place would again be enough, as long as Leclerc ‘complies’ with his part.
France, the precedent that would make Verstappen champion
In Verstappen’s 11 wins this year, only in one has the scenario that would make him champion occurred. It was at the last French Grand Prix, where his victory was accompanied by Leclerc’s accident when he was leading the race and Pérez’s fourth place, surpassed in the race by the Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell. None of the Red Bulls got the fastest lap, which went to Carlos Sainz in his comeback from the bottom of the grid to finish fifth.
Beyond that, Leclerc hasn’t finished a race outside the top six, and his other two DNFs were accompanied by Red Bull one-two finishes, which would rule out Max’s early crowning. In case that Verstappen finished second, he could only increase his lead by a maximum of 19 points., the potential 135 being insufficient even if Leclerc finished at zero. In the same way, Russell does not influence the accounts for his disadvantage of 132 points over Verstappen, since a victory for the leader would leave him at least 138, even if he finished second with the fastest lap.
Schumacher and Alonso, the last ‘early champions’
The last decade has seen championships defined well in advance, especially in Mercedes’ most dominant years, but Verstappen could get it with a rush rarely seen. If the title falls in Singapore, he would get it with a five-race margin, this being the second time something like this has happened since Nigel Mansell in 1992 and Michael Schumacher, who achieved it in July 2002 six races ahead of the end of the season. In short, I’d equate it to two of the most statistically dominant seasons in history.
In turn, by dates would be the earliest champion since Fernando Alonso, who in 2005 won his first title on September 25, although with only two races ahead in his case. If the celebration is to be postponed until Suzuka, the aforementioned precedent of Vettel in 2011 would be the reference for the most anticipated celebration in 11 years. seems lonely a matter of time before the virtual champion is officially, unless the return to Asia has an ace up its sleeve. After all, in Singapore the established order has always been less relevant…
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