Starting almost from scratch, Tesla will be able to celebrate its 20th anniversary (2023) with a production rate close to 2 million units, once its gigafactories reach cruising speed and approach their maximum production rates.
After a few missteps, Tesla’s long-term plans announced in 2017 are coming to fruition. Then we knew there would be five gigafactories, which will all be operational by the end of this year. Tesla is no longer a small manufacturer in terms of production.
By 2020 the goal was to reach a capacity of one million units. The objective was achieved, at least theoretically, by adding the production capacities of the Fremont Tesla Factory (California, USA) and the Shanghai Gigafactory 3 (China). Between the two, this year they could produce close to a million units.
And we say “could” because the production of Model S and Model X was frozen during the first quarter – the manufacturer declared 0 units – to adapt the Fremont factory. In addition, China’s was not yet at full throttle. You also have to take into account the impact of the microchip crisis, although Tesla has not been affected as much as others.
We are missing the data for the fourth quarter, which has just begun. They will contribute little to the total Grünheide Gigafactory 4 (Berlin, Germany) and the Austin Gigafactory 5 (Texas, USA), since before the end of the year they will already be producing, but initially at a low rate. In 2020 they touched half a million units produced and delivered.
Those who miss Gigafactory 1 and 2, remind them that the first is in the State of Nevada and the second in the State of New York. The first is specialized in batteries, the second in the business of solar panels and backup batteries of what was SolarCity.
At the moment there are no more gigafactories announced, so we will have the main factory and the five Giga already built, taking into account that four of the six are dedicated to the manufacture of automobiles: Fremont, Shanghai, Berlin and Texas. Adding up the maximum capacity of all, interesting numbers come out.
Without knowing the capacity data of the Austin factory, 1.55 million units are already out per year. With its capacity approaching half a million, we are already talking about the 2 million units per year of production capacity, which do not have to be reached in 2022.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, predicts 900,000 deliveries this year and that next year it will be 1.3 million. Maximum capacity cannot be reached with logistical chain problems and with two factories that have just been put into operation. Giga Shanghai has needed almost two years to go to the maximum.
The microchip crisis may be overcome between 2022 and 2023
It is reasonable to think that by 2025, and without more installed capacity, Tesla could produce and deliver to customers about 2 million units. The commercial success of the Model Y will be key to reaching that volume, and seeing how it is behaving lately in the markets it reaches, it is going to do very well.
The Cybertruck truck has more than 1.25 million reservations
On the other hand, you have to take into account other Tesla products such as the sports car Roadster second generation, the pick-up Cybertruck and the tractor Semi. There are rumors from China that there is already a prototype of the future, Model 2?, Which has not been officially unveiled, nor does it have an assigned factory.
If before the end of the decade Tesla is able to put on the street a compact car of reasonable price, already with fully developed economies of scale, and its corresponding crossover version to inflate the price a bit, it is not unreasonable to make the hypothesis of arriving to 5 million units by 2030.
The company’s 2030 goal, revealed in the 2020 Impact Report, with annual sales of 20 million electric cars. To put that number in perspective, it is the production of Toyota and Volkswagen together, with all their brands, and beware, of electric vehicles. By then there will be much more competition than now …