Key facts:
The drop in the price of bitcoin in the semester is double that registered by Nasdaq.
Despite the fall in the markets, Deutsche Bank predicts a rebound in the second half.
The closing of the first semester represented a historic fall for Wall Street shares, in which a 21% decline in the S&P 500 index stands out, the worst recorded since 1970. Nasdaq, for its part, fell 29.4% in the period and the Rusell index 23.3%; In both cases, it is the largest semi-annual drop in the history of these indices, according to data from Dow Jones.
The main Nasdaq companies present disappointing results, both in their semi-annual performance and in the second quarter. Apple fell 24.93% from January to June and showed a decline of 22% in the second quarterthe worst performance since the end of 2018. Alphabet (Google), on the other hand, fell 26.85% so far this year, while falling 22% in the last three months.
Among technology companies, Amazon showed one of the worst performances with a 37% drop in the semester, due in large part to the significant drop in the second quarter, of 34%. Tesla showed the steepest quarterly drop in the sector, 38% from April to June, which represents the largest loss since its Initial Public Offering in 2010.
Inflation and recession are the ghosts that scare the markets
This stock collapse comes amid the highest inflation rates in the last 40 years and interest hikes by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). Although this regulatory body ensures that by controlling inflation a phase of economic recovery will come, various sectors have warned that drastic increases in rates can lead to a recession.
Major financial institutions, such as Deutsche Bank and Citigroup, believe there is a 50% chance of a recession before the end of 2023. On the other hand, a global survey of CEOs or executive managers showed that 60% of these believe that there will be a recession by the end of the year.
In view of the historical falls of the S&P 500 index, the portfolio manager at the GPM firm, Hugo Ferrer, affirmed that the fall of more than 20% of said index was an indicator that we are already in the midst of a recession, just as CriptoNoticias reported it.
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In the case of the bitcoin market, the decline in return in the first half is more pronounced than that of equities. Bitcoin closed the first half with a 60% loss, while June was the worst month in its entire history, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
However, in the midst of this bearish scenario, a Deutsche Bank report predicts that the price of bitcoin can reach USD 28,000 by December of this year. According to the analysis of the German bank, a recovery of the S&P 500 is in sight in the second semester, which will take it to the levels it had six months ago. The thesis of the Deutsche Bank analysts is due to the close correlation of the price of bitcoin with the shares.