Private sector experts raised the growth forecast for the Mexican Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 2.79% for 2022 from a previous estimate of 2.12%as revealed on Thursday by the November monthly survey of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
Nevertheless, the forecast for 2023 decreased for the eighth time in a row to 0.95% after a previous estimate of 0.97%according to the 36 national and foreign analysis and consulting groups that participated in the Banxico survey, between October 18 and 29.
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These data from specialists are adjusted after revealing last Friday that GDP increased by 0.9% quarterly and 4.3% year-on-year in the period from July to Septemberwith which it accumulates a growth of 2.9% in the first three quarters of 2022.
In addition, the experts reduced their outlook for general inflation to 8.36% at the end of 2022, while the previous month they projected that it would close the year at 8.54%.
This forecast comes after it was announced that the Mexican inflation rate fell to 8.14% annually in the first half of last November after the rates of 8.41% for all of October and 8.7% in September, when it was at its highest rate since the year 2000. .
While, by 2023, they also reduced from 5.09% to 5.01%.
Obstacles in Mexico’s economic growth
As factors that could hinder the growth of economic activity in Mexico in the next six months, the experts highlighted governance (44%) and external conditions (17%) at a general level.
While at a particular level the problems of public insecurity (17%), internal political uncertainty (12%) and inflationary pressures in the country (11%) stood out.
About the exchange rate, Analysts estimated that the Mexican peso will close 2022 at 20 units per dollarwhile in the previous survey the projected price was 20.46 pesos per US bill.
By the end of 2023, analysts now calculate that the Mexican currency will be exchanged at 20.71 units per dollar, higher than the estimate of 21.02 the previous month.
The levels prior to the pandemic were close to 18.5 pesos per dollar.
Regarding the external sector, for 2022, the expectations on the trade balance were revised by going from a deficit of 23,958 million dollars to one greater than 25,847 million dollars, while by the end of 2023 they expected it to be reduced to 20,596 million of dollars.
The foreign direct investment (FDI) forecast for 2022 grew slightly from a projection of 34,476 million dollars to a higher projection of 34,809 million dollars, while for 2023 its estimate is that it will be reduced to 32,768 million dollars.
EFE International news agency based in Madrid and present in more than 110 countries.