Private sector analysts maintained the growth estimate for Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) at 3.4% at the end of 2023 for the second consecutive weekaccording to the “Citibanamex Expectations Survey (ECE)” published this Tuesday.
The consensus continues to project GDP growth of 3.4% for 2023, the same as a fortnight ago,” the document reads.
The expected growth range is between a maximum of 3.7%, as predicted by Masari Casa de Bolsa, and a minimum of 3% by the financial group Ve por más (BX+).
For 2024, the bank’s most recent publication, compiled among 33 analysis groups from different banks, brokerage houses and other traders and brokers, maintained the advance projection at 2.1%.
Expectations for the Mexican economy next year range between 1.4%, as predicted by XP Investments and BX+, and a maximum of 3.8% estimated by Masari Casa de Bolsa.
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According to the estimates of the Mexican Government, GDP growth expected for 2023 is more than 3%due to the arrival of companies to the country due to the relocation of supply chains, a phenomenon known as “nearshoring”.
For its part, the Citibanamex survey maintained the consensus among specialists that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will make a first cut of 25 basis points in the interest rate until the period January-March 2024.
The latest monetary policy decisions taken by Banxico maintain the restrictive stance on the pause in the upward cycle in interest rates for a prolonged time up to 11.25% at the end of the year.
The report indicated that 25 of the 32 respondents projected the start of the cut cycle in the first quarterwhile seven anticipate it for the April-June period.
The survey also reflected that annual headline inflation expectations for the end of 2023 and 2024 remained unchanged with a stable outlook at 4.6% and 4%.respectively.
Regarding underlying inflation, which excludes high volatility products such as energy, the projection of the analysts consulted increased slightly to 5.15%, from 5.1%, while for 2024 it increased to 4.06% from 4%.
Projections for general inflation still remain above the Bank of Mexico’s target rate of 3%.
The analysts consulted also expect a stronger Mexican peso by the end of 2023 and a weaker one by 2024.
The consensus now estimates a closing of the exchange rate at 17.85 pesos per dollar in 2023, lower than the 18 in the previous survey, and at 19 pesos per greenback in 2024, from the forecast of 18.95 two weeks ago.
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EFE International news agency based in Madrid and present in more than 110 countries.