Bitcoin and altcoins are extending their rally and traders expect gains to push higher after this week’s Consumer Price Index data is released.
Crypto markets and stock markets often look to the future. That is, traders tend to ignore short-term negatives and focus on future positives. With the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving in 2024, analysts are turning their attention to this event.
Independent market analyst Rekt Capital highlighted this unique market dynamic in 2015 and 2019, a year before the halving, Bitcoin rallied 234% and 316% respectively. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin price action may surprise in 2023.
However, the near term remains uncertain and the January 12 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data may lead to a sharp increase in volatility.
Some analysts are skeptical of the growing dominance of altcoin trading volume, which is above 50%. According to CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn, the altcoin domain warns of “a potential risk of further downside.”
One event that is being closely watched is the crisis brewing at Digital Currency Group (DCG). Galaxy Digital Holdings CEO Mike Novogratz, in an interview with CNBC on January 10, said that excess DCG, Genesis and Gemini could “develop in the next quarter.” Although “it’s not going to be great,” Novogratz doesn’t think so. it will trigger “lots of sales”.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins continue their recovery or will higher levels attract strong selling? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
The bears tried to stop the rally near $17,400 on Jan. 9, but were unable to sink the price below $17,061. This suggests that the bulls are buying minor dips. The price bounced on January 10 and buyers are trying to extend the relief rally.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($16,982) has turned higher and the RSI is above 66, indicating that the bulls are in control. The BTC/USDT pair could rally to $17,850 and if this level is scaled, the next stop may be $18,388.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the pair may continue to range from $16,256 to $18,388 for a few more days.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) has been trading near the overhead resistance of $1,352 for the past two days. The 20-day EMA ($1,261) has started to turn around and the RSI is close to the overbought territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
If the buyers catapult the price above $1,352 and the downtrend line, it will suggest a possible trend reversal. The ETH/USDT pair could rally to $1,700, and if this level is scaled, the next stop could be $1,800. The bears are likely to defend this area vigorously.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the pair could drop back to the moving averages. If this support breaks, it will suggest that the pair may continue its range-bound action between $1,352 and $1,150 for a while longer.
BNB/USDT
BNB (BNB) turned down from $283 on Jan. 9, but the bears were unable to push the price below the 50-day SMA ($269). This suggests that the bulls are buying dips.
The bulls will again try to push the price above the upper resistance at $283. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $300 and then $318. and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the bulls have the upper hand.
This positive view could be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down and falls below the moving averages. The pair could then drop to the $250-$236 support zone. Bulls are expected to defend this level fiercely because failure to do so may result in a drop to $220.
XRP/USDT
After trading inside the symmetrical triangle for the past few days, XRP (XRP) made a strong bullish move on January 11. The bulls pushed the price above the triangle and the 50-day SMA ($0.37).
If the bulls hold the price above the triangle, the possibility of a rally to $0.42 increases. This level can act as a big hurdle, but if the buyers break above it, the XRP/USDT pair could skyrocket to $0.51. The RSI has jumped into the positive territory, indicating that the momentum favors the buyers.
If the bears want to stop the bullish move, they will have to quickly pull the price back to the triangle. Next, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($0.35) and subsequently to the support line.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) broke out and closed above the downtrend line of the falling wedge pattern on Jan. 9-10, but the bulls were unable to take advantage. This suggests hesitation to buy at higher levels.
The bears are trying to get the price back into the wedge on January 11. If successful, the ADA/USDT pair could slide towards the moving averages.
A strong bounce suggests aggressive buying at the lower levels. The bulls will try again to push the pair above $0.35. If this hurdle is crossed, the pair could attempt an upward move to $0.44.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and falls below the moving averages, it will suggest that the break above the wedge may have been a bull trap. The pair could then drop to $0.26 and then $0.24.
DOGE/USDT
Buyers tried to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the overhead resistance at $0.08 on Jan. 9, but the long wick of the candlestick shows that the bears are fiercely protecting the level.
The flat 20-day EMA ($0.07) and the RSI near the midpoint indicate a short-term range-bound action. The DOGE/USDT pair could trade between $0.08 and $0.07 for some time.
Another possibility is that the price will rally from the current level and rally above the 50-day SMA ($0.08). If that happens, it will suggest that the fix may be over. The pair could then skyrocket to $0.11.
MATIC/USDT
Polygon (MATIC) has been trading above the 50-day SMA ($0.84) since January 9, which is a positive sign. This suggests that the bulls are trying to turn the moving averages into support.
The gradually turning up 20-day EMA ($0.81) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate an advantage for buyers. If the bulls push the price above $0.88, the MATIC/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.97. This level can act as a big hurdle, but if the bulls break above it, the rally could touch $1.05.
On the downside, if the bears sink the price below the 50-day SMA, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA. If this support gives way, the pair could extend the decline to $0.75.
USDT/LTC
Litecoin (LTC) is facing resistance near the $85 overhead resistance, but the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers are not taking profit as they anticipate a move higher.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in overbought territory, indicating that the bulls are in command. If the buyers push the price above $85, the LTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally towards the psychologically important $100 level.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or fails to sustain above $85, it will suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the moving averages.
A bounce off this support will suggest that the bulls are buying the dips. That could result in a retest of $85, but if the price breaks below the moving averages, the pair could drop to $61.
DOT/USDT
Polkadot (DOT) rallied above the 50-day SMA ($4.92) on Jan. 9, but higher levels attracted sellers, as seen from the long wick of the day’s candle.
Although the price dipped back below the 50-day SMA, the bears have not been able to drag the DOT/USDT pair to the 20-day EMA ($4.70). This suggests that the bulls are not rushing to the exit and will try again to push the pair above $5.10. If they can pull it off, the pair could shoot towards the downtrend line.
This positive view could be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20 day EMA. The pair could then drop towards the crucial support of $4.22.
UNI/USDT
After trading between the moving averages for a few days, Uniswap (UNI) broke out and closed above the 50-day SMA ($5.58) on Jan. 8. This indicates that the uncertainty has been resolved in favor of the bulls.
The UNI/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle. The bears can again try to stop the rally at this level. If the price turns down from this resistance but bounces off the moving averages, it will suggest that traders are buying on dips. That could increase the probability of a break above the triangle. The pair could then start an upward move towards $7.8.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or resistance line and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle for longer.
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