The OPEC This Tuesday, it kept unchanged its forecast of solid growth in global oil demand this year, of 2.2% year-on-year, based on an optimistic expectation about the development of the global economy.
In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that global crude oil consumption will rise in 2024 to an average of 104.46 million barrels per day (mbd), 2.5 mbd (2.2%) more than in 2023 this year. anus.
These figures are the same as those estimated a month ago, despite the fact that the organization's experts slightly raised, to 2.8%, their expectation of the growth of the world economy for this year, that is, the basis of their calculations.
OPEC is counting on China and India, along with other Asian nations, to “maintain their growth momentum and play an important role” as drivers of the global situation.
This should compensate for the “relatively low” growth rates in the industrialized nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The vision “of positive and stable dynamics in the main economies is supported by expectations of a sustained softening of headline inflation throughout 2024 and 2025,” he explains.
At the same time, he expects the main central banks to begin reducing their interest rates in the second half of 2024 and that this “shift towards more accommodative monetary policies” will continue in 2025.
Next year the oil consumption It would total 106.35 mbd, 1.85 mbd (1.77%) more than in 2024, which represents a slowdown in growth, according to OPEC calculations, based on a growth of the world economy of 2.9%.
Be that as it may, until the end of 2025 the increase in “black gold” demand will come almost entirely from economies outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
By sector, transportation fuels, especially aircraft, will be the one that will drive growth the most.
In addition to “strong air traffic in all regions,” OPEC expects to see gasoline needs continue to be “supported” in major consuming countries and regions, such as China, the Middle East, India and the United States.
It also foresees a vigorous demand for crude oil as a raw material for the petrochemical sector.
Regarding oil supplies, volumes from non-member countries would increase by 1.07 mbd (1.54%) this year, totaling 70.53 mbd, a growth revised downwards, by 120,000 bd, compared to last month's report.
By 2025, this rival offer would be 71.93 mbd.
The main drivers of production growth will be the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway, while Russia and Mexico will reduce their supplies.
For their part, the twelve member countries of OPEC increased their joint production in February, which totaled 26.57 mbd in February, 2,203,000 bd more than in January, according to estimates from “secondary sources”, that is, from independent institutes.
Increases in extraction from Libya (+144,000 bd), Nigeria (+47,000 bd), Saudi Arabia (+18,000 bd) and Venezuela (+16,000 bd) more than offset declines in Iran (-15,000 bd), Iraq (-14,000 bd), Kuwait (-8,000 bd) and Equatorial Guinea (-4,000 bd).
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