Bitcoin (BTC) is entering “buy cheap” territory as the clock ticks towards the block reward halving of 2024.
That’s the conclusion of several well-known market participants this month, with Bitcoin just a year away from its “very interesting” upcoming halving.
Bitcoin and the halving: possible buying opportunity?
Bitcoin halving cycles are known to follow patterns when it comes to price activity in a given period.
These four-year “epochs” have thus far contained both a macro high and low for the price of BTC, with those events also within four years of each other.
What’s more, in each cycle, the minimum has tended to occur just over a year before the next halving. For Bitcoin insiders like media guru Pete Rizzo, there is little reason to believe that the future is going to be substantially different.
“A little reminder: the most valuable money in the world is only designed to get scarcer. Plan accordingly,” wrote in part of a tweet on May 12.
Rizzo was celebrating the third anniversary of the 2020 halving, and an accompanying chart underscored the cryptocurrency’s price action relative to the number of months remaining before the next halving event.
In his commentary, investor and entrepreneur Alistair Milne went further, suggesting that for those looking to benefit from BTC exposure, the time to buy is now, while the months leading up to the halving are less beneficial entry points.
“Don’t go short when it’s dark green and go all-in before it’s blue…”, summarized on the content of the chart.
PlanB: the halving in 2024 “is not planned”
Earlier in the month, meanwhile, another popular but controversial figure in the Bitcoin space used the same halving narrative to insist that price cycles were not a matter of chance.
In a post of its own, PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) family of forecasting models for the price of Bitcoin, claimed that half of market participants believed that the relationship between halving cycles and the price was random.
His comments came in the context of how halvings relate to the S2F model, a theory that itself continues to come under widespread criticism as a result of missing expected 2021 price targets.
However, also for PlanB, the BTC/USD pair remains low, as the next halving has not yet translated into a sufficient appreciation of the market.
“Why is the S2F/Bitcoin halving not valued? Because ~50% believe that the BTC price jumps after the last 3 halvings (red) are a coincidence”, wrote along with an illustrative graph.
“Halvings are key to S2F, but these critics focus on the autocorrelation between halvings and conclude that there is no relationship between S2F/halving cycles and price. I disagree, obviously. The 2024 halving will be very interesting.” .
In a subsequent discussion, PlanB called the idea that the price of Bitcoin increases as each halving cycle decreases the available supply, or “flow,” as “no-brainer.”
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