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To say that the ‘Bicolor’ will add in all the squares sounds utopian. The certain thing is that the stops that will have the ‘sele’ until November will be difficult. Traveling to Ciudad del Este, welcoming Brazil in Lima, flying to Santiago, hosting Argentina, acclimating to La Paz and closing at home against Venezuela is what awaits Peru in the first six rounds. But, How many points could the Reynoso team really score this year, taking into account that in the last tie we only had 4 points in six games?
First stop: Paraguay (1 point)
The team will no longer set foot in the Defensores del Chaco in Asunción, but will move to Ciudad del Este to face Paraguay on September 7, at the start of the qualifying process for the 2026 World Cup. The previous process, the ‘sele’ debuted with a 2-2 draw on the road against the Guarani, a result that Juan Reynoso could aspire to for this start.
The Guaraní team arrives at another time than three years ago. Its young figures are already appearing in the Premier League, such as Miguel Almirón and Julio Enciso (the latter in doubt for the game) and combines a veteran team in defense and with new blood in attack. Drawing a tie in Ciudad del Este would not be a bad deal for the team.
Second stop: Brazil (0 points)
Facing Brazil will always be very difficult, but many times it is better to have them as a rival at the start of the process than when they are already ‘on’ and with several victories on top of them in the tie. The ‘Canarinha’ faces an interim era at the hands of Fernando Diniz, which could take some time to establish itself. Added to this the possible losses of Neymar and Vinicius Jr, could generate some hope in the selection.
Although the task will be daunting, since beating Brazil or even drawing it requires an almost perfect match from the team. In 2020, we lost 4-2 at home with a controversial arbitration involved, but the ‘sele’ did not clash. However, not adding points on September 12 sounds the most logical, since the ‘Canarinha’ always arrives at the rival goal with danger.
Third stop: Chile (0 points)
Continuing with this scenario, we would reach the ‘Clásico del Pacífico’ on October 12 with only one point in two games and we would be facing another complicated scenario: we have never won on a visit to Chile in Qualifiers. For Qatar 2022, the ‘Red’ gave us a hard blow of authority and beat us 2-0. Beyond the fact that the ‘mapochos’ are in full generational change, when they play at home against their people they come out determined and another revolution.
Starting from the fact that we have never won there, it is most probable that ‘sele’ will return to Lima empty-handed, staying with only one unit until the third date. Panorama that was also repeated towards Qatar 2022, which we ended up going to the World Cup playoffs.
Fourth stop: Argentina (0 points)
The start of Peru does not look encouraging. We will have already faced Brazil, Chile in Santiago and for the fourth date the world champion would play with Lionel Messi at the helm in Lima, on October 17. And although the ‘sele’ has always made good games here for Argentina, the moment of the ‘Scaloneta’ and his pupils make everything uphill.
Last tie, the ‘Bicolor’ fell 2-0 against the ‘Albiceleste’ and a defeat is more than likely that this process be repeated with Juan Reynoso, which would mean that after four dates, we would have only added one point in the table, which would easily position us in last place for the time of the qualifiers.
Fifth stop: Bolivia (1 point)
After already having faced Brazil and Argentina, the following games would be more fought and close to tie it or win it on a visit. On November 16, the ‘sele’ will fly to La Paz to face Bolivia, which is always difficult at home. The last tie, the ‘Green’ beat us 1-0, but having Reynoso on the bench and with his experience at the height (he was Melgar’s coach), the outlook could be more encouraging.
Reynoso could plan this match in detail, not only because of the experience he has at altitude, but also because of the pressure that scoring points again in the process could entail. Bringing the three points can be the objective of ‘Cabezón’, but the most realistic thing could be to steal a point in La Paz and already have two units in the table.
Sixth stop: Venezuela (3 points)
After playing against Bolivia, Peru will have the obligation to win at home against Venezuela on November 21, on the sixth and last date of 2023. In the event that they already have two points, the victory against “Vinotinto” would give them a boost to the ‘Bicolor’ when it reached five units. Last tie, the ‘sele’ beat the llaneros 1-0 and is one of the rivals that the fan demands to win no matter what.
The ‘Bicolor’ would have to beat Venezuela to be able to add five points in a realistic scenario. Even losing to Bolivia, the victory against “Vinotinto” is crucial to reach four units and, at least, get the same score that Gareca’s “sele” obtained in the last tie. Everything will depend on Reynoso and the moment of the team.
In summary, achieving 5 out of 18 possible would be to award 28% of the possible points, although it would also be realistic to add only three points, against Venezuela in Lima, that victory is not negotiable.
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