The senior market analyst for eToro, Javier Molina, was in charge of making the weekly commentary on the markets of the multi-asset investment platform, eToro; in which he showed analysis on key elements of the market, the Ibex 35, the S & P 500 and Bitcoin.
Throughout this year 2022commodities (+27.9%) and cash (+1.4%) have been two factors that have worked efficiently in the investment framework. “Without seeing a solution to the geopolitical conflict in Europe and with doubts as to whether we have seen the “pivot” of inflation, a complicated exercise begins that will require the utmost diligence when taking positions”, Molina explained.
The flows in ETFs have shown striking outflows in passive funds in the last week. These exits can be for different reasons such as: flows in ETFs, for typical year-end adjustments or for tax compensation. Regardless of the reason, that $28 billion is on the way out is alarming.
From a more technical point of view, the bearish target of 3,800 points has been reached in the S&P index, which makes it easier to reach 3,720 points after losing 3,750. However, the VIX is at 20 points , which could be read as a possible change to “consolidation period taking 3720 points as support and 3890-3900 as resistance zone”, Molina explained.
Regarding the IBEX-35 index, the market analyst for eToro commented that this index has seen “attempt to attack the key zone of 8000 points and rebound from that important reference. Above, it is now the first 8250 and 8500 resistance levels to watch. In principle, we consider that the most likely scenario is maintaining that 8000-8500 range in the next week and only if we see prices lose or exceed those levels, we will think about bigger movements”.
By last, in relation to Bitcoin, it continues within the range of USD 15,500-17,500 which has been extending for several weeks ago. If this does not change, then it continues within “the great channel while the macro scenario is glimpsed and the situation in the crypto ecosystem is clarified.” If USD 15,000 were to be lost, then the ecosystem would be waiting to go down to USD 12,500, while if $17,500 is broken, then bullish behavior is expected so that $20,000 can be reached.
For this new year 2023, the key will be that, as has been shown for a few weeks, it will be the business results and the capacity of the institutions to be able to withstand and face high inflation and high rates . “While it is true that the consensus is negative in the first part of the year, expectations are more positive for the second half. Valuation in 2023 will matterMolina concluded.
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