From the first day of 2023, the electoral processes began to renew the governorships of the State of Mexico and Coahuila, entities that represent a major challenge for the opposition, since the candidates of Morena start as favorites, highlighting the former Secretary of Education, Delfina Gomez, who -for the second time- intends to become the first female governor in a state whose Executive Power has been in the hands of the PRI for almost a century.
Just because partisan alternation has not been experienced in Coahuila either, an entity that has always been governed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the pre-campaigns, which will begin on January 14 in the two disputed states, They will allow us to observe if the opposition parties manage to agree to face Morena together.
The elections in these two entities, which will be held on Sunday June 4, They are also emerging as the prelude to the 2024 presidential elections, especially since the State of Mexico is the demarcation with the largest number of voters in the entire country, and because the opposition shows an important weakness before the official party.
Likewise, the local and federal authorities will be tested, who are expected to respect the legislation and not intervene in these processes, abiding, where appropriate, the provisions of the electoral bodies, as well as those of the respective Electoral Tribunals.
For now, the uncertainty?
One of the main characteristics of democratic countries is the necessary uncertainty that must exist in all elections, a scenario that Mexico experienced since 1997, and was consolidated with the presidential triumph of Vicente Fox in the year 2000.
In the case of Coahuila, the currency is still in the air: The latest polls for the elections, in which the governorship and the local Congress will be renewed, show that 21.2% of voters still have not decided which party and candidate they will vote for.
A survey carried out by Massive Caller, on December 27, 2022, accounts for this high number of undecided, while placing Manolo Jimenez Salinas, former PRI mayor of Saltillo, with 35.8% of the electoral preferences, in the event that the politician and businessman compete under the brand of an opposition bloc made up of the Institutional Revolutionary, and the National Action (PAN) parties, and the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
This survey places the morenista Armando Guadiana with 27.3% of sympathies, while the Citizen Movement (MC) candidate, Alfonso Danao De la Peña, has 4% of preferences.
The difference of 8.5 percentage points in favor of Jiménez, in contrast to Guadiana, is not entirely significant, since we must consider that two out of ten voters still do not define their vote.
Morena in Edomex, sure victory?
On the other hand, in the State of Mexico, Morena has 39.5% of the intention to vote, according to Massive Caller, while a possible coalition between PAN, PRI and PRD stands at 37.2%.
For the opposition, the problem here is the candidate, Well, when Delfina Gómez Álvarez, from Morena, is compared in the poll with the PRI Alejandra del Moral, the former Secretary of Education appears as the winner with 41.2% against 33% of the former deputy.
However, if Gómez Álvarez faces the PAN member in the elections Enrique Vargas del Villar, competing as a candidate for an opposition group, the differences are significantly reduced. In this scenario, the former head of the SEP would obtain 37.9% of the votes, while Vargas would appear with 36%, that is, considering the margin of error of 3.4% of this poll, both candidates are tied.
Rules and rulings, will they be respected?
Electoral legislation in Coahuila establishes that the pre-campaigns must conclude on February 12, immediately afterwards, candidacies for governor and candidates for Congress must register between March 28 and April 1.
The Coahuila campaigns will begin on April 2, and will end on May 31, a period in which candidates must respect the law, not exceed campaign limits, and promptly report their expenses.
These obligations must also be observed in the State of Mexico, where the registration of candidates for governor will close on April 2. One day later, and until May 31, proselytizing campaigns can be carried out.
In both entities, the authorities and their officials, at the state and federal levels, must also comply with the rules governing elections, starting with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who must refrain from making statements about the parties and candidates, quite a challenge for the eloquent president who every morning attacks those he considers his adversaries.
In 2021, when the elections were held to renew the Chamber of Deputies, and a popular consultation, and in 2022, with the revocation of the mandate, the National Electoral Institute imposed various precautionary measures on López Obrador in order to make him stop speaking of these issues, because with it government propaganda is carried out.
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surya palaces Journalist and lawyer, specialist in legal analysis and human rights. She has been a reporter, radio host and editor.