After a positive start to the week and hitting $32,000 for the first time in over 15 days, the price of bitcoin (BTC) fell back below the $30,000 mark. Now, it threatens to mark its tenth consecutive weekly close in the red and continue to break negative records in its market history. And just as the price of bitcoin remains indecisive, predictions about its future are also conflicting among analysts.
One of those who doubts about that future is Scott Melker, the same one who commented a few days ago that at this moment it was not worth analyzing the price of bitcoin. Now in a new newsletterMelker assured that the markets are always difficult to read and this moment is no exception.
“The signals are confusing, the charts are drifting and almost any scenario could play out,” said the analyst known as The Wolf of all Streets. For him, the truth is that bitcoin is right now “another ship facing the same storm as any other assetand clarity on a global level is what is probably needed to correct course.”
A couple of weeks ago, Melker himself predicted a significant rebound while fear was taking over the market. At the moment, that reaction seems to have stopped and BTC fell back again.
Now there are others who maintain that bullish expectation, such as David Battaglia. Via Twitter, the analyst related the moment of the traditional markets with that of bitcoin and dared to forecast a movement of the cryptocurrency back to the band of 35,000 to 40,000 dollars.
Battaglia commented that the Nasdaq index is about to break an important resistance that would technically take it out of the bear market. And if BTC follows that same behavior, it would go out to the band foreseen in its analysis.
Changing the bitcoin price prediction model
Almost half of this year 2022 has already passed and the expectations that bitcoin will reach $100,000 during this cycle are less and less strong. To fulfill this prediction, supported by the model stock-to-flow of PlanB, it would imply tripling the current price and more.
For months, with the bearish behavior of the cryptocurrency, this predictive model has been called into question. Even its creator came to clarify, as we reported in CriptoNoticias, that I had not predicted that level for last November.
But Jurrien Timmer, director of Fidelity, offers an alternative. While he acknowledges that model was one of the first things he delved into upon entering the world of bitcoin, he commented, “I wasn’t satisfied that scarcity alone was a lasting factor for price.” And that is precisely what stok-to-flow is based on: the decreasing pace of mission in contrast to the increase in adoption. Which is the same as saying the demand.
Basically, Timmer’s proposed change to the model is to take into account how close the bitcoin supply limit is now. that will exist in total: less than 2 of the 21 million are missing to enter circulation. That, for him, will make price growth more moderate in the future. Although, he alleges, it remains bullish in the long run.
Coming back to the short term, there are a lot of bearish predictions floating around. The trader known on Twitter as @CryptoTony_, for example, wait levels between 22,000 and 24,000 dollars. Other analysts that we have mentioned before in the newspaper, such as the economist Harry Dent, predict devastating scenarios. In his particular case, he expects a prolonged winter and levels as low as BTC in the range between $3,000 and $7,000.