Bitcoin (BTC) futures are starting to see record discounts as sentiment among derivatives traders worsens.
In its latest dedicated report released on Aug. 23, analytics firm Arcane Research painted a worrying picture of morale among participants in the BTC futures market.
Futures Basis Hits June Lows Again
Following an initial shock during the BTC price crash in June, which has since remained a macro bottom, Bitcoin derivatives have not been the same.
After an initial rebound, the metrics are trending lower and are hitting records this month.
Futures basis – the difference between futures contract prices and Bitcoin’s spot price – has already returned to lows seen only during the June crash to $17,600. The move came on the back of last week’s BTC/USD sell-off, which led to multiple hits below the $21,000 mark.
“Overall, the current basis for futures is at levels only briefly experienced during the June crash,” Arcane confirmed, adding that the data is “indicative of a very bearish stance among futures traders.”
The most discouraging figures come from the price of CME Group’s one-month futures contracts.
Exceeding previous lows from July 2021, these contracts are now trading at their biggest discount to spot price in their history.
“Overall, CME futures have tended to trade at a discount over the past couple of months, but saw a short-lived strong rally during the early August market strength,” the report continues.
Arcane argued that “structural effects” within the derivatives market could explain the behavior to some extent, but that both “worsening liquidity and general derisking” remained an issue.
“While BTC derivatives could signal a climate conducive to reduced selling, the choppy trading range coupled with the global market wobble speaks in favor of conservative positioning and a gradual build-up in the spot market,” he concluded. .
GBTC remains near record lows
After US regulators rejected its application to create a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in June, the largest institutional investment vehicle in Bitcoin is still struggling.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continues to trade at more than 30% off the spot price of Bitcoin.
The latest data, previously reported by Cointelegraph, puts the GBTC discount – once a premium – at 32.5%. The discount also hit records in June, when it briefly topped 34%.
For the investor and researcher, Jeroen Blokland, the signs of a change in trend remain elusive.
“I expect ‘physical’ Bitcoin ETFs to be approved at some point. Following the recent SEC decision, it doesn’t seem imminent, but futures ETFs (also) have their threats,” plot this week.
Blokland said that institutional investors were “massively” choosing BTC exposure options other than GBTC.
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