China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3% in 2022one of the lowest rates in recent decades, according to official data published today by the National Statistics Office (ONE) of the Asian country.
If the figure for 2020 is excluded, the year in which China reduced its growth to 2.2% due to the initial impact of the pandemic, The figure for the year just ended is the lowest since the Asian country began its “reform and opening” policy at the end of the 1970sthe seed of the ‘economic miracle’ of the following decades.
The experts were already anticipating a sharp slowdown in the rate of growth of GDP compared to the data for 2021 (8.1%, data recently revised to 8.4%) due to the impact of the national ‘zero covid’ policy, which severely affected economic activity due to the restrictions and strict confinements imposed due to the spread of the virus.
In March of last year, Beijing set itself an official target for GDP to grow by around 5.5% year-on-yearwhich would already have been the slowest rate of progress in decades but which analysts called ambitious given the context.
However, given the spread of the contagious omicron variant, the authorities insisted on redoubling their ‘zero covid’ strategy with more restrictions and harsh confinements that heavily weighed on economic activity during various stretches of the year.
Despite lowest level in 50 years, results were better than expected
In the last quarter of 2022, the Chinese economy did not experience any variation in quarter-on-quarter terms and increased by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year.
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These data beat the expectations of analysts, who expected that, in the last three months of the year, GDP contracted by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter and increased by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2021.
The official figures had reflected an interannual advance of 4.8% in the first quarter, 0.4% in the second and 3.9% in the third.
At the end of December, China’s total wealth reached 121.07 trillion yuan (17.95 trillion dollars, 16.58 trillion euros), the ONE said today.
The Chinese authorities will not make public their economic objectives for the year -among them, the expectation of GDP growth- until the annual summit of the National People’s Assembly (ANP, Legislative), which will begin in early March.
China optimistic towards 2023
It’s a statement, The institution assured that the national economy “withstood the pressure” in 2022 loaded with “challenges” both nationally and internationallypraising the “positive results” of the coordination between the anti-covid strategy and socio-economic development policies.
However, the Office reiterated that the “foundations” of the economic recovery “are not solid” because “the international situation is still complicated while there is still the threat of a triple pressure at the domestic level due to the contraction of demand , the ‘shock’ of the offer and the worsening of expectations”.
Louise Loo, an analyst at the Oxford Economics consultancy, indicated that the economic data published today was surprisingly positive “but they are still weak”, especially on the demand side, which does not prevent the existence of “signs of stabilization” derived from the support policies promoted at the end of the year.
The expert reiterated that the boost to economic recovery derived from the reopening of China after the end of the ‘zero covid’ will be “somewhat anemic” at first due to factors such as consumer spending, but predicted that the rebound could begin to take shape this same quarter and that the economic data would begin to show more positive signs from the month of March.
However, according to Moody’s Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise, China will now have to face new waves of covid infections and other negative factors such as the “worsening” crisis in the real estate sector or the drop in international demand for its goods due to global recessionary prospects.
Moody’s Analytics today forecast Chinese GDP to grow 4.3% yoy this yeara figure that rose to 7.1% in the case of 2024.
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