The bears are trying to extend the Bitcoin (BTC) record of nine consecutive weekly red candles to ten weeks, but the bulls are trying to avoid this downside. Although sentiment remains negative, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, sees Bitcoin bottoming out in the $25,000 to $27,000 range.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows that smart money may have started accumulating Bitcoin. Net outflows from major cryptocurrency exchanges reached 23,286 Bitcoin on June 3, the highest figure since May 14.
Another positive sign of accumulation is that investment in Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) was strong in May and has only increased in the first two days of June, according to a report from Arcane Research. ETPs have 205,000 Bitcoin under management, which is a new record.
Could Bitcoin Go Up and Start a Recovery? If that happens, could some altcoins follow the leader? Let’s study the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that could lead the relief rally.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin crashed below the 20-day exponential moving average ($30,459) on June 1. The bulls tried to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on June 2nd and 3rd, but the bears did not budge.
The bears will try to pull the price below the strong support at $28,630. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the vital support of $26,700. Buyers are expected to defend this support zone with all their might, as if they fail to do so, the downtrend could resume.
On the other hand, the bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $32.659 to suggest that a new uptrend might start. The bullish momentum could pick up if it breaks out and closes above the 50-day SMA ($33.778). The pair could then rally to the guideline target of $36.688 and then to $40,000.
The 4 hour chart shows that the price action is compressing. Although the bulls broke above the 20 EMA, they are facing stiff resistance at the 50 EMA. This suggests that the bears are active at higher levels.
A small silver lining in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to break below the support at $29.282.
If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, the bulls will try to push the pair towards the 200 SMA. Conversely, if the price breaks below $29.282, the next mark could be USD 28,630.
ADA/USDT
Cardano (ADA) broke above the downtrend line on May 31, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen on the long wick of the daily candle.
Although the bears have successfully defended the downtrend line, A minor positive is that the bulls have kept the ADA/USDT pair above the 20-day EMA ($0.56). This increases the possibility of a break above the downtrend line.
If that happens, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.67), where the bears may once again pose a strong challenge. A breakout and close above this level will suggest a possible trend reversal. The pair could rally to the breakout level of $0.74.
Contrary to this assumption, If the price turns down and drops below $0.53, the bears will try to push the pair to $0.50 and then $0.44.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price has been compressed between the 200 SMA and the 50 SMA, but this tight range is unlikely to continue for long. If the bulls push the price above the 200 SMA, the pair could attempt a rally to $0.64. A breakout and closing above this level would open the doors to a potential rally to $0.69.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.53, the selling could pick up momentum. The pair could drop to $0.50 and subsequently to $0.47.
XLM/USDT
Stellar (XLM) broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.14) on May 30, which was the first indication that the selling pressure might be easing. The bears stopped the move up near the 50-day SMA ($0.15), but they have not been able to sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA.
This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips towards the 20-day EMA. If the bulls push the price above the 50 day EMA, this will suggest the start of a sustained recovery. The XLM/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.18 and then to the 200-day SMA ($0.21).
This positive view will be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down and breaks below $0.13. This movement will suggest that the demand dries up at the higher levels. This could take the pair to $0.12. If this support also gives way, the bears will try to resume the downtrend by sinking the pair below the psychological level of $0.10.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price is trading inside a symmetrical triangle. If the bulls push the price above the resistance line of the triangle, the pair could rally to $0.15 and then attempt a rally to the pattern target of $0.17.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to sink the pair below the support line of the triangle. If they do, the selling could intensify and the pair could slide down to the strong support at $0.13.
XMR/USDT
The failure of Monero (XMR) to break above the 50-day SMA ($202) may have tempted short-term traders to take profits. That has pushed the price down to the 20-day EMA ($189).
The bulls are attempting to defend the 20-day EMA, but the lack of a strong bounce from it suggests weak demand. If the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, the next stop could be the uptrend line. If it breaks down and closes below this support, the price could drop to $167.
Conversely, if the price rebounds from the current level, the buyers will try to break out of the resistance zone between the 50-day EMA and $210. If successful, the XMR/USDT pair could extend its rally to $230.
The pair has been falling inside a descending channel, which suggests a small advantage for sellers. If the bears sink the price below the channel, the negative momentum can increase and the pair could slide to $167.
Alternatively, if the price bounces off the support line, the buyers will try to push the pair above the channel. If they manage to do that, the pair could once again attempt a breakout above the overhead resistance at $210.
MANA/USDT
Decentraland (MANA) has failed to break above the 20-day EMA ($1.06) for the past few days, but a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the bulls are buying the dips as they anticipate a move higher.
If the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are losing control. The MANA/USDT pair could then rally to the overhead resistance of $1.36. This is an important level to watch out for, as if it breaks and closes above it, it could indicate a bottoming out.. The pair could rally to $1.68.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below $0.90, it will indicate that the bears are unwilling to give up their advantage. The pair could retest the crucial support at $0.60. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been trading inside a tight range between $0.94 and $1.04. The falling 20 EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest a slight advantage for the sellers. If the bears pull the price below $0.94, the pair could drop to $0.90.
Conversely, if the bulls push the price above $1.04, it will suggest that demand outstrips supply. This could open the doors to a possible rally to the tough overhead resistance of $1.15.
If the price turns down from this level, the pair could hover between $0.90 and $1.15 for some more time. If it breaks down and closes above $1.15, the buyers will have the upper hand.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.