Markets fluctuate. It’s their nature. That’s how they are. After an excellent first start to the year, many investors have now decided to sell. All of this is happening while the market is trying to predict the effects of the US Federal Reserve’s actions on the economy. Recession or soft landing? The bassists go first. The bulls go for the second. The problem is that no one knows for sure what we will actually get. So right now, we have no choice but to make decisions based on assumptions.
Due to the latest labor market data (USA), some people are talking about a possible interest rate increase of 0.5% for the next meeting in March. Most, however, do not think so. We can still assume that the probability lies with an increase of 0.25%. The truth is that the Reserve will continue with its policy of monetary tightening. Inflation is still at unacceptable levels. And credit costs must increase in order to reduce demand. In this way, restore the balance between demand and supply.
The Big Question: Recession or Soft Landing? Lower-than-anticipated revenue forecasts for the final half of the year from Walmart and Home Depot have caused concern in the market. Apparently, the reports reveal a rather complex picture in relation to consumer behavior. Everything seems to indicate that sales have increased a bit because higher-income families are choosing cheaper options. But this is happening mainly in the food items. The other items (such as toys, household items…) are already being hit by the slowdown.
And bitcoin? Well, the bulls are still struggling to keep prices up. AND many players continue to insist that a recovery is imminent despite macroeconomic conditions. However, one could assume that the correlation with Nasdaq and the S&P 500 will continue to dominate. Which implies that it is quite likely that the price of Bitcoin will continue to dance to the tune of that correlation.
Now, let’s talk about the top crypto news of the week according to Cointelegraph in Spanish. This is not a news summary. This is an opinion article. The intention is to reflect on the following headlines in a skeptical and critical way. This is an article for free thinkers.
A Briton Who Advised North Korea On Cryptocurrencies Arrested In Moscow
In this space, due to libertarian reasons, it is not uncommon for “freedom” to be confused with “evasion”. I refer to the supposed “non-taxability” of Bitcoin. However, the FBI has seized quite a bit of BTC in its operations. And the non-fiscality? What that “non-taxability” really means is that with this technology it’s a little easier to hide from the authorities. So yes we can hide behind a cold bag. However, the law is the law. And every citizen is obliged to comply with the laws of his jurisdiction. Thus, that “non-taxability” is relative. Because everything transferable is confiscatable.
The authorities are learning. And, over time, they have become more effective. That has made evasion more difficult. I mean, they’re finding the people. Technology is being used to defeat technology.
Alert about scams in Argentina through emails on behalf of the Federal Police and Interpol
It is no secret to anyone that the Internet is plagued with scams. Extortions are common. And this modus operandi, in particular, is not uncommon. Of course, identifying all the culprits is not an easy task. After all, anyone can send an email. Authorities can increase their effectiveness in supporting new technologies. But frankly, it’s almost impossible to achieve total and utter effectiveness.
Russia will start a CBDC pilot project with real users in April
Russia this time is following the Chinese example. “We plan to launch the digital ruble project on April 1, with transfers between natural persons, as well as payments in commercial and service companies,” Skorobogatova told the Urals Forum on Cybersecurity in Finance.
What other details do we know? It would be interesting to know the details around the privacy of users and the level of state control over the finances of citizens.
Breaking: SEC sues Do Kwon and Terraform Labs for fraud
The FTX crash outshone previous crashes quite a bit. However, we cannot forget about the above. What really happened in the Terra/Luna case? Apparently, things were found in the investigation. And it was decided to sue accordingly. Now, everything is in the hands of the courts. What is expected is that the guilty pay. The full weight of the law for those responsible for such a disaster.
IMF report indicates that Colombia lowered the deficit in 2022 and can continue to grow economically in 2023
It is not easy for a Latin American country to reduce its expenses. Because the population is used to receiving government handouts. In general, the government that does not fall into the temptations of welfare is punished on election day. Inflation in Latin America is normally closely related to excessive fiscal spending. Of course, a government must offer services to its population. A prosperous country needs a strong government. But it is not uncommon for Latin America to comment on spending excesses for political reasons. In other words, money is given away to win elections.
However, international financing is not unconditional. Do you want a loan? Well, get your house in order. For the lender, lending money must be profitable. I mean, sooner or later, he wants his money back. That means every borrower must earn credibility from him. Put your house in order and we’ll lend you the money. Otherwise, look elsewhere for money. Interventionism or business?
Basic principle: We cannot spend more than what comes in. Here we are not talking about leaving the poor to God’s good grace. It’s simple math. If you spend more than what comes in, sooner or later, you will be out on the street. It happens with people. It happens with countries.
Disclaimer: The information and/or opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views or editorial line of Cointelegraph. The information presented here should not be taken as financial advice or investment recommendation. All investment and commercial movement involve risks and it is the responsibility of each person to do their due research before making an investment decision.
It may interest you:
Investments in crypto assets are not regulated. They may not be suitable for retail investors and the entire amount invested may be lost. The services or products offered are not directed or accessible to investors in Spain.
