Bitcoin (BTC) could rise up to seven times more than in its last halving, but if history repeats itself, that figure could grow another 300% and more.
As tracked by the on chain data source Ecoinometrics this month, The BTC / USD pair has the potential to overshadow estimates simply by following historical precedent.
Bitcoin: Compared to 2017, you haven’t seen anything yet
Bitcoin is currently trading 7.3 times compared to its halving in May 2020. However, if the latest halving cycle is something to watch out for, the price action won’t stop until it is 30 times higher.
The data refers to halving cycles of approximately four years in which Bitcoin has exhibited identical behavior since its inception.
The current cycle, despite the impatience of some traders, is still closely linked to the previous two.
Taking 2017 as an example, BTC’s next price spike could be up to $ 253,800 – and even then, Bitcoin would continue to act within previously defined parameters.
Ecoinometrics also includes data on Ether (ETH) and its performance relative to the stage of the Bitcoin halving cycle.
The largest altcoin posted much larger comparative gains relative to Bitcoin – 120 times its halving price marked the peak of the latest cycle in 2018.
Therefore, a repeat performance would mean that the ETH / USD pair is trading at $ 22,300 – again not beyond the realms of possibility.
In terms of what the subsequent bear market might bring, Bitcoin would need to bottom around $ 42,000 to copy its post-2017 correction. The price of ETH, on the other hand, would fall to $ 1,347.
1 BTC = 1 BT
If these high figures are difficult to understand, they pale in comparison to what well-known data analyst Willy Woo now believes.
In a tweet this week, Woo reiterated that this Bitcoin halving cycle will be unique in a specific sense: it will end with things being priced in BTC, not USD, as using anything to measure the value of BTC will be meaningless.
“What is my prediction for the end of this cycle? As I think this is the last cycle, the one that brings us to saturation, that if it wins, we cannot put a value in USD because things are valued in BTC”, wrote.
“Therefore, the top of the cycle is easy to choose. It will be 1 BTC = 1 BTC.”
Another post noted how close Bitcoin was to its market capitalization compared to M2’s offering in dollars. The situation in the next five years – the rest of the current cycle and the beginning of the next – he said, will be “very interesting.”
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