The price paid for the “whale coins” is revealed as a possible new bear market bottom zone for BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) has a new downside price target as more research highlights the potential role of whales in establishing a macro bottom.
In the most recent edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain”, the analysis company Glassnode offered a new vision of the “cost base of Bitcoin whales”.
Full price paid joins the whales support lines
BTC price action is currently sideways and some of the lowest volatility ever seen.
However, as analysts brace for the big swings, Glassnode is wondering where the current bear market might bounce.
When it comes to whale buying and selling, “The Week On-Chain” showed a breakout event in August following current frame lows of $17,600 seen in June.
This phenomenon mimicked the behavior of 2019, and if history repeats itself, a period of “equilibrium” should now be ensuing for the whales where sales become purchases.
“In addition to the relative neutrality in the small and medium address cohorts, the Accumulation Trend Score for whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC highlights aggressive accumulation since the end of September,” Glassnode explained.
“Whales holding more than 10,000 BTC have a weak distribution bias in recent months.”
Therefore, in the current circumstances, the total price that the whales pay for their bitcoins is $15,800, a strong potential safe haven in case the market bottoms.
“By closing the price of whale cohort deposit and withdrawal volumes (1,000+ BTC) to/from exchanges, we can estimate the average price of whale deposits/withdrawals since January 2017. This cost basis of whales is currently around $15,800,” added Glassnode.
Cost basis sets precedent when it comes to price
As Cointelegraph reported, other research is also looking at how the biggest investors in Bitcoin shape price action.
Analysis platform Whalemap revealed that $19,000 was the key support zone today, based on whale buying, a line in the sand that has held ever since.
The resistance at the $20,280 mark has also marked the extension of the upside during the trading days.
In its monthly newsletter, “The Bitcoin Monthly,” investment giant ARK Investments puts the global Bitcoin investor cost basis at $19,000.
In any case, expectations continue for a capitulation that will give the market a new macro low sooner rather than later.
“In many ways, many on-chain metrics, market structure, and investor behavior patterns dot the i’s and cross the t’s for a classic bear market bottom,” Glassnode concluded.
“A major missing piece is duration, of which history would suggest there are still several months to go before a full recovery.”
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