Around Bitcoin, there are two conflicting narratives circulating at the same time. Which complicates the analysis and reflection. It is the same world, but seen from two very different perspectives. These two interpretations in permanent conflict make the job of the impartial and disinterested observer difficult. The description is intertwined with the aspiration. Events are used, too often, to confirm ideology. And propaganda tends to replace the truth. I mean, It’s not always a matter of money. In many cases, it is also a political battle to revolutionize the world’s monetary, banking and governmental system.
During a revolution, the truth fades into the background. Because the priority is to win. The world is divided into two: the allies and the enemies. The people (the allies) are being oppressed by the evil cabals (the government, central banks, private banks, corporations, media and the rich). The people are always innocent. And the enemy is always guilty.
The “progressive Keynesians” and state intervention in the economy are responsible for destroying paradise by creating “money out of thin air”. So what we need is a return to classical liberalism. Or, put another way, you need a hard currency, a free market and the complete absence of any centralized control. Obviously, here we are reliving the old debates of the 19th century. Gold beetles have been playing that same broken record for decades upon decades.
Many libertarians have turned Bitcoin into a gold 2.0. And they have made a -copy and paste- of an old aspiration. Instead of gold, it is now Bitcoin. So the old becomes new. But It’s the same old song. What changes is the generation.
In this world of political extremism, social networks have served as a meeting place for different groups. And, in the meeting, the different causes are strengthened. Which, in many cases, has facilitated radicalization. Do you think the earth is flat? Surely, in the networks, you find your community. On the Internet, any madness has its congregation.
Now, many libertarians, many anarcho-capitalists, and many conservatives have found a home in the Bitcoin community. So, for them, Bitcoin is not simply a code with a monetary value. Bitcoin is a cause. Bitcoin is an idea. Bitcoin is a citizen currency that emancipates us from the State. Bitcoin represents a monetary insurrection that promotes the libertarian utopia.
According to this worldview, Bitcoin adoption is practically a referendum against the state. In other words, every Bitcoin buyer is a convert to the cause. A purchase is a commitment to the libertarian utopia and a rejection of the established powers (the dollar, the Federal Reserve, Uncle Sam, etc).
So the myth goes like this. The people, sooner or later, will recognize their own slavery and will want their emancipation. He will realize the scam and oppression of the established powers. And this realization will produce mass adoption of Bitcoin. Then, in the form of a great epiphany, we will all acknowledge the unquestioned superiority of the golden paradise proposed by crypto-libertarians. Oh God! “Bitcoin is scarce.” “No one will take my money.” “What a powerful computer network.” Etc.
All of this sounds nice and lovely to the committed cryptolibertarian. But I’m afraid that to everyone else it all sounds like the outdated doctrine of a group of fanatics. Now the “crypto” (Venezuelan slang) are as feared as Herbalife, Amway, flat earthers or Jehovah’s Witnesses. No one wants to invite them to parties anymore. For fools. The same phrases, the same ideas, the same confident ignorance, the same stubbornness and the same paranoia, over and over again, ad nauseam. It’s really exhausting.
This “militant bitcoiner” makes a lot of noise on social media. And he is the king of cryptotwitter. Because of this, the militant feels entitled to proclaim himself the official spokesperson for the entire community. He speaks for everyone. And he believes himself to be the guardian of the cause. But interestingly, he is not the majority bitcoiner.
The “mercenary bitcoiner” is the silent majority of this community. This group is not as loud as the militants, but it is backed by large numbers. Hand-on-heart thought-provoking question: Why do people buy Bitcoin? Investment or ideology? Speculation or politics? You and I know that the vast majority are looking to make money. They want to buy low and sell high. They are more investors than monetary reformers. Or not?
If you want to hear dogmas, go to Twitter. But If you want to know the truth, study the price action. Price action reveals to you the true beliefs of the market. According to the militants, the adoption by idiosyncrasy, sooner or later, will raise the price. Based on price action, the price of Bitcoin rises with increased liquidity, increased greed, and increased risk appetite. The monkey dances for money.
Bitcoin’s volatility is very revealing. Volatility is a reflection of doubt and uncertainty. The investor thinks in terms of profit and loss. Because what he wants is to grow financially. So this market, in this sense, is more like a casino than a church. People come and go as they please. “Doctrinal” faith is too fragile to be a church.
How can we explain this contradiction between what is said and what is done? Well, the military is a very loud minority. And mercenaries are a very powerful majority. ORthey speak to us And the others do. So, the mouth doesn’t keep pace with the feet.
Are you a militant or a mercenary? Why are you in this? A mercenary (like me) what he seeks is financial growth. In this case, the most relevant thing is the price action. And the most appropriate optic is a Wall Street style optic. I mean, it’s best to betray the tribe. Not thinking like a militant bitcoiner, but thinking like a traditional investor. The worst that can happen is that your bitcoiner friends call you a “progressive Keynesian”. But that hasn’t killed anyone. In the absence of a moderate center, pragmatism is perceived as an alliance with the enemy. If you’re not from my gang, then you must be from the enemy side. Fanaticism leads you to see false dilemmas everywhere.
Personally, I am not willing to lose my savings for an ideology. I am sorry. So when it comes to forecasting, I study price action and macroeconomic conditions as objectively as possible. I read cryptotwitter for a professional obligation as a columnist. But I avoid his advice at all costs. Ideology creates inveterate bulls, because the job of ideologies is to create a false sense of security. In other words, the final victory belongs to the cause. History is on our side and all that.
At this time, the investor is moving very cautiously due to an environment full of volatility and uncertainty. Stability and predictability is being found in stablecoins and fixed income pending further clarity. Strategies are being designed for protection. Because the fear of losing money outweighs the greed of winning. Reminder: Losing money is not the same as losing an opportunity. Risk management must become a priority.
Disclaimer: The information and/or opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views or editorial line of Cointelegraph. The information presented here should not be taken as financial advice or investment recommendation. All investment and commercial movement involve risks and it is the responsibility of each person to do their due research before making an investment decision.
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