Bitcoin (BTC) refused to give up gains at the Wall Street open on Jan. 23, while the US stock market opened higher.
The dollar falls and risk assets reject the retracement
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that the BTC/USD pair was still hovering around $22,800 as of this writing.
The pair had managed to hold onto its trading range over the weekend, with a local low of $22.315 allowing bulls to avoid a major pullback.
The mood remained bullish among risk assets on the day, with the S&P 500 rising 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index trading 2% higher.
Gold also disappointed those expecting a reversal after weeks of impressive performance, something analyst Alisdair McLeod blamed on classic supply-and-demand principles.
“Attempts to push gold back keep failing,” commented on the daily chart of the XAU/USD pair.
“While technical analysts signal that a correction is looming, they seem to be unaware that central banks are buying every ounce they can get.”
With this, the already faltering US Dollar Index (DXY) managed only a modest rally at the open before resuming its downtrend, hovering around 102 at time of writing.
Among Bitcoin analysts, the jury was still out on whether the current rally really marked a turnaround after more than a year of bear market.
“There are indications that this could be the start of the bull, and there are also indications that it is a bearish rally. Until I see confirmation, I focus on the data that matters to see if a potential breakout is a justifiable move or more likely. of being a fakeout”, summarized Keith Alan, co-founder of the on-chain data resource Material Indicators.
Alan went on to point out that one particular macro catalyst had yet to come in to end the bears’ time.
“Based on the economic data we’ve seen so far, the upward trend in unemployment, which has historically been lows, is still absent,” he wrote.
“Sure, maybe ‘this time is different’, but I’m looking at full candlesticks above the 200-week MA to consider it a confirmed breakout.”
Alan was referring to Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a key trend line that Bitcoin has yet to recover after losing support late last year.
Bitcoin holders resist selling
With Bitcoin soaring 40% in January, another point of concern centered on the temptation to take profits.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode noted, however, that long-term holders were generally steadfast in their decision not to exit the market, even after more than a year of losses.
“Cohort behavior analysis shows that short-term holders and miners have been motivated by the opportunity to liquidate a portion of their holdings. By contrast, the supply held by long-term holders continues to grow, which can be considered a sign of strength and conviction in this cohort”, read part of his conclusion.
“Given the effect of long-term headlines on the macro trend, watching your spending will likely be a key tool to watch in the coming weeks.”
Entities that hold coins for at least 155 days are considered long-term holders.
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