Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a “cycle bottom” this year in which it could drop more than 50% from current levels, various research claims.
In a Twitter thread on June 1, Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, forecast that 2022 would be the year that Bitcoin would “capitulate”.
Bitcoin currently has the best ROI in 3 years
Based on the historical patterns of Bitcoin halving cycles, this year should be the bearish black sheep of the current four-year cycle, Venturefounder wrote.
Similar to 2018 and its bear market, the BTC/USD pair should hit a macro bottom at some point in 2022, and calculating past declines from all-time highs, such a bottom could be anywhere between $14,000 and $21,000.
“670 days to go until the next Bitcoin halving, we are on time for BTC performance compared to previous cycles,” the analyst explained in a tweet:
“In the next 670 days, BTC will capitulate over the next 6 months and hit the bottom of the cycle ($14,000-21,000), then fluctuate between $28,000 and $40,000 for most of 2023 and be at ~$40,000 again for the next halving”.
Such a forecast, while not music to bulls’ ears, such a forecast would not be unprecedented. After reaching $3,100 in December 2018, Bitcoin managed to recover to $13,800 seven months later, before falling back again to bottom at the March 2020 lows near $3,600.
Not even the 2019 local high was enough to break the era record set in December 2017: $20,000.
According to Venturefounder, that level could once again be a feature of the spot price chart. Those willing to ride the wave and invest – even now – will nonetheless be on the right side of history.
“In other words, buying Bitcoin between now and the next 6-12 months is the best thing to do. Probably the best ROI in 3 years ever,” he added:
“We may not be at THE bottom of the cycle, but we are range bound for BTC cycle bottoms. This is the best you can do when timing market cycles.”
The background predictions keep coming
Meanwhile, others have already estimated the probable range bottom at or near $14,000.
That price would represent a drop of around 80% from the current all-time high of $69,000, which corresponds to the previous cycle low in percentage terms.
Current levels around $31,000 are comparatively modest as a pullback, they show. data from on-chain analytics company, Glassnode.
Last month, analyst Rekt Capital calculated a potential target of $15,500 once the BTC/USD pair falls below its 200-week moving average.
Sellers may have a hard time driving the market down that much. MicroStrategy, which owns the largest corporate treasury of BTC, has pledged to buy on any dip towards the $20,000 mark.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the BitMEX exchange, has also confirmed that he would be interested in BTC at $20,000.
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