BTC price action may remain cool through Oct. 12, according to an analyst, as a historical indicator of volatility emits a rare warning signal.
Bitcoin (BTC) trading was flat at the open on Wall Street on Oct. 10, as one trader predicted it would take until Wednesday for volatility to begin to impact price.
A “Guaranteed Recipe for Massive Volatility”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the BTC/USD pair hovering around $19,300 at the time of writing.
The pair has been narrowly tight over the weekend, with a single test of the $19,000 level marking an otherwise flat situation.
With the week leading to a possible break in volatility, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested traders could get another 48 hours of grace.
“Markets will most likely remain flat until we get all the economic data on Wednesday and Thursday”, summarized that day.
Nonetheless, Van de Poppe reiterated that, when it comes, Bitcoin’s move should be “very big.” He referred to Bitcoin’s Historical Volatility Index (BVOL), currently at rare lows seen only a handful of times before.
“Historically, that’s a guaranteed recipe for massive volatility,” wrote part of an explanatory tweet.
October 13 was the most important day of the week for analysts, since the consumer price index (CPI) for September in the United States will be published.
US equities were generally quiet at the time of writing, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite Index down 1.1%.
On-chain analytics resource Material Indicators said the macroeconomic data would trigger chain moves for both volatility and market share.
“Earnings Reports, CPI, Unemployment and Retail Sales are going to fuel a rise in these two cryptocurrency market metrics”, tweeted on day.
An earlier post from Material Indicators founder Material Scientist had revealed that volatility and number of trades had hit one-year lows.
In another sign of a storm to come, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was back higher on the day, having regained much of the ground lost after reaching its highest levels since May 2002.
DXY hit 113.31 on the day, with a 28th September high of 114.77.
Hash rate holding up as difficulty hits new all-time high
Meanwhile, after two weeks of preparation, a massive difficulty reset sent Bitcoin’s key fundamental metric up 13.55%.
Despite financial pressure on miners due to the spot price suppression, the move was the biggest positive adjustment of the Bitcoin network since May 2021.
At the time, however, their progress was short-lived, with successive losses subsequently accompanying market jitters as the exodus of miners from China began.
The network hash rate was estimated at 260 exahashes per second (EH/s) at the time of writing, and data from the on-chain monitoring resource MiningPoolStats puts the all-time high at 289 EH/s on 5th January. September.
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