Bitcoin (BTC) miners may have already triggered a “capitulation event”, according to a new analysis.
In an update on June 24, Julio Moreno, a senior analyst at on-chain data firm CryptoQuant, hinted that the price of BTC might already be bottoming out.
BTC Price Bottom “Usually” Follows Miners Capitulation
Miners have seen a dramatic change in circumstances since March 2020, going from unprecedented profitability to seeing their margins squeezed.
The drop to $17,600 – 70% below November’s all-time highs for the BTC/USD pair – has hit some players hard, as the data now show, since miners’ wallets have sent large amounts of coins to exchanges.
As CryptoQuant suggests, this precedes the final stages of the sale of bitcoin in a major way, in line with historical precedent.
“Our data demonstrates that a miner capitulation event has occurred, which has typically preceded market bottoms in previous cycles,” Moreno summarized.
The miner sale has been widely followed this month, with the Twitter account @Bitcoin going so far as to describe the situation as miners “being emptied of their coins.”
the #bitcoin miners are being drained of their coins. pic.twitter.com/O0i9Lx0wQF
—Bitcoin (@Bitcoin) June 18, 2022
Bitcoin miners are having their coins emptied.
“For miners, it is time to decide whether to stay or go,” added CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Juin a Twitter thread last week.
The situation is delicate, but the majority of miners are still active, as evidenced by the fundamentals of the networkwhich have only fallen slightly from their all-time highs of more than 30 trillion.
Mixed signals about buyer interest
Nevertheless, when it comes to other big BTC holders, the picture seems less clear.
After the whales bought liquidity close to USD 19,000, CryptoQuant’s Ki announced this week the arrival of “new” high-volume entities.
Outflows from major US exchange Coinbase, he noted, hit their highest since 2013.
Time to welcome new #bitcoin whales.
Average $BTC outflows from @Coinbase hit a 9-year high. Average inflows are high as well.
There are lots of exchange in/outflows from whales lately, but actually, nothing changed on BTC reserve across all exchanges.https://t.co/Ptw2mg9YuR pic.twitter.com/s697lSvw27
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) June 23, 2022
It’s time to welcome new bitcoin whales. Average BTC outflows from @Coinbase hit a 9-year high. Average inflows are also high. There are a lot of whales in/out of exchanges lately, but nothing really changed in the BTC stock across all exchanges.
The trader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated its doubts about the strength of overall trader volume, arguing that sellers, by contrast, continued to drive market movements.
Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (MA), a key support level during previous bear markets, has yet to see significant interest from buyers. even though the spot price is around $2,000 below it.
“Current volume on the buy side of BTC after the extreme sell volume spike is still below the 2018 bear market buyer follow-through volume levels at the 200-week MA. Not to mention follow-through on the side of the purchase of March 2020″, said to Twitter followers.
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