Bitcoin (BTC) remained wedged in a tight range on June 4 as trader demands for a new macro low persisted.
Long-term holders begin ‘distribution’
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the BTC/USD pair hovering between $29,000 and $30,000 over the weekend.
The day before, the pair had managed to rally to close to $31,000, but the last Wall Street session of the week put an end to the efforts of the bulls.
With the ‘off-hours’ markets offering thin volume but little volatility, eyes were on the possible direction of what would be an inevitable breakout.
“Bitcoin’s weekly chart is looking pretty good so the trend continuation holds. I think we consolidated a bit more in this range before eventually falling”Crypto Tony announced that day partly from a series of tweets.
another post it reiterated a $22,000-$24,000 target for Bitcoin once that drop forecast took hold.
“I am looking for another drop to $24,000-$22,000 but of course distribution takes time. So we may be hovering around these support zones before any dips”was read.
Others planned to take full advantage of the incoming weakness, including the popular Cryptotoad Twitter account, which announced an accumulation strategy to $27,000 and below in what would be a “swing low” for the BTC/USD pair.
I don’t know what you’re gonna do, but My plan is to start accumulating my long term position at 27k swing low all the way down to the 0.382 fib at 21.5k.
#btc #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/JCdHv0pMdr
— Cryptotoad (@Mesawin1) June 4, 2022
I don’t know what you are going to do, but my plan is to start building my long position at the swing low of $27,000 to the 0.382 fibonacci at $21,500.
As Cointelegraph reported, other sources pointing to lower lows for Bitcoin range from on-chain analysts to well-known experts such as former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.
Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant added fuel to the fire and signaled that long-term holders were starting to shed their reserves in a classic bear market move.
“The capitulation phase for long-term holders has begun,” analyst Edris summarized in one of the site’s QuickTake market updates, published on June 3.
Commenting on a chart of long-term holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Edris drew comparisons to the conditions that preceded generational lows in Bitcoin history. These included the bear markets of 2014 and 2018, as well as the COVID-19 cross-market crash of March 2020.
“Currently, long-term holders are entering the capitulation phase and selling at a loss, indicating that the accumulation phase of smart money has begun, and the coming months would present a great opportunity for long-term investment in the market,” the post said.
He noted that such a capitulation event “usually marks a multi-year bottom.”
Exchanges still see big buys
In a sign that some were already buying the dip, meanwhile, exchange data showed that outflows were noticeably outpacing inflows in recent days.
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, on June 3, net flows from major exchanges totaled -23,286 BTC, the most since May 14.
Discussing the behavior of long-term holders earlier in the week in the latest edition of its newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” leading on-chain analyst Glassnode, Checkmate, further outlined the classes of investors that are currently less interested in selling.
Specific, those who bought near the November 2021 all-time highs “appear to be relatively price insensitive,” he wrote, adding that the investor profile is increasingly made up of these stubborn holders.
“Despite continued price drops, and a major 80k+ BTC spot settlement event, they remain unwilling to let go of their coins,” he added.
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