Blockstream’s CEO, Adam Back believes that the bitcoin (BTC) price could reach $10 million by the end of the sixth halvening in 2032, as long as bitcoin’s layer 2 technology and wallet infrastructure improves..
In a February 12 Twitter thread, Bitcoin Core contributor explained to his 509,000 followers in which situation Hal Finney’s $10 million price prediction for BTC could come true.
Back pointed out that the price of BTC has doubled on average on a year-over-year basis since 2013, explaining that if that trend continues, the bitcoin price will reach $10 million, along with a market capitalization of $200 billion, in about nine years..
early this year i was curious about the claim “bitcoin 2x’s per year on average”. it checks: the decade jan 2013 – dec 2022 #bitcoin went up 2,036x/year (1200x in a decade). if that continues we’ll cross $10mil/BTC and $200 tril market cap by end of next 2 halvenings, about 9 years. pic.twitter.com/mqmO2SRdAv
—Adam Back (@adam3us) February 12, 2023
Earlier this year I was curious about the statement “bitcoin doubles per year on average”. Proof: the decade from January 2013 to December 2022, bitcoin rose 2036x/year (1200x in a decade). If that continues, we will cross $10,000/BTC and $200B market cap by the end of the next 2 halvenings, about 9 years. pic.twitter.com/mqmO2SRdAv
However, Back said that for that number to be reached, improvements in bitcoin layer 2 technologies and wallet infrastructure need to be accelerated to allow time for these innovations to scale:
“I think things will get ‘interesting’ in the next two semesters. And quick, we don’t have a lot of time to scale the technology. We need somewhere for the next billion users to own their own UTXO, their own keys, with censorship-resistant cold storage. Without weakening the security of the main chain.”
back said that “probably means sidechains/drivechains as tradeoff. More lightning optimization […] We don’t have much time as technology takes time to mature, wallets, interoperate, and integrate.”.
In response to a comment, Back said that he believes that bitcoin adoption has not yet reached the bottom of the S-curve, as only 1-2% of the world’s population has accessed bitcoin. He Predicts More Investors Will Start “Stacking” BTC Into Cold Storage Wallets:
“Given the volatility, I think bitcoin can wildly overshoot and take advantage of one of these $100-300 trillion market caps, correct, and then regain more stable adoption over time. I suspect that people with average entry points, relative to the current price, will not have much incentive to sell in size.”
The CEO explained that part of that next wave of adoption may come from what he describes as “hyperbitcoinization outbreaks,” in which people in hyperinflationary environments will “rush” into bitcoin:
However, in response to another comment, Back also admitted that “we have completely failed to financialize bitcoin” so far.. The cypherpunk suggested that bitcoin could be used in mortgages where the property is used as collateral and bitcoin as the interest:
“The native bitcoin financialization market is immature, almost untouched. Structured bitcoin products, mortgages backed by real estate but with interest backed by BTC, other products make bitcoin easier to use for more people, and fit risk profiles, which creates more growth.”
Back added that To get close to $10 million, BTC would also need to “displace” a significant proportion of store-of-value premiums in bond, real estate, gold, and stock portfolios..
Do you think bitcoin twitter is bullish? Hal Finney (@halfin), was calculating a bitcoin price of $10,000,000 per coin just ONE WEEK after the the genesis block on January 3rd, 2009.
Absolute legend. pic.twitter.com/5MptLhEYHL
—Doc (@DrBitcoinMD) August 23, 2019
Do you think the bitcoin twitter community is bullish? Hal Finney (@halfin), calculated a bitcoin price of $10,000,000 per coin just ONE WEEK after the genesis block on January 3, 2009.
He is an absolute legend. pic.twitter.com/5MptLhEYHL
At the time of writing these lines, BTC was trading at USD 21,800.
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