Key facts:
Analysts believe that the price may fall further, despite the recent rally.
BTC inventories on exchanges continue to decline.
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After closing the first half with a 60% depreciation, the price of bitcoin (BTC) showed a rebound on Monday, July 4. It rose 14% this Saturday 9, although in the last 24 hours it has fallen 3.7%.
Although there is still no consensus on whether the price of bitcoin has already bottomed out, for some economists, it could be affected by the measures of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) to control inflation, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
The demand for bitcoin remains weak, although the momentum of the last few days led its price to exceed USD 22,000 at times, after almost a month trading below that mark. For the economists consulted, the uncertainty due to high inflation and the expectations of new increases in interest rates, they are leading to an appreciation of the US dollar and a decline in risk assets.
At the time of writing this article, the BTC price is USD 20,918, according to the CriptoNoticias price calculator. This represents an increase of 9.5% in the last 7 days.
Is the end of the crypto winter? Specialists say
With the rally in bitcoin in recent days, the discussion about whether the price of bitcoin reached a low before embarking on a recovery to new highs is reframed.
Among the opinions of the specialists consulted by CriptoNoticias, after the price of bitcoin touched $22,300, there is the idea that the crypto winter is not over yet, as Eduardo Gavotti assures. He maintains that we are still in a bear market (bearish market) and that there is still room for the price to fall. In the past, Gavotti says, he has taken 8-12 months for the BTC market to get back on track after bottoming out.
Featured chart of the week
In the following graph the bullish effect of the bitcoin halvings is resumed, although this effect is increasingly attenuated compared to previous halvings. The author assumes that we are very close to the bottom, although the price will experience fluctuations until the end of the year, when it will slightly exceed USD 30,000.
The author foresees price fluctuation until the end of this year in the range between USD 16,000 and USD 30,000, until it breaks the resistance of the descending trend line that joins the recent highs. By the date of the next halving, approximately in March 2024, the price would be above USD 55,000. The model forecasts a price of USD 110,000 for early 2025.
Bitcoin is a safeguard for the future
In his latest market bulletin, published this Friday, July 8, analyst Scott Melker offers several tips to face the potential recession, as we discussed in this medium. Among them, Melker highlights that There have been no recession episodes in which stocks have been a bad investment in a 10-year period. Since dips have been good times to buy stocks, the same goes for the cryptocurrency market. Buying bitcoin, therefore, would be a profitable decision in the long run.
Bitcoin is an alternative to fiat money
Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, a company that advises governments and companies on the adoption of bitcoin, harshly criticized the international monetary system at the Blockchain Summit Latam that was held in Panama. “We are going to see the fiat system crash, and this can be alleviated by adopting bitcoin,” Mow said at his conference.
Beyond the current bear market dominated by fear and mistrust, people must understand that bitcoin is a new form of money without intermediariessaid the specialist. “There are many communities around the world that speak to us and ask us for advice on bitcoin. For example, in countries like Peru,” Mow said.
Calm in the market and the BTC continue to leave the exchanges
While there is a relative calm in the bitcoin market, its participants have continued to withdraw BTC from exchanges, whose inventories are at levels of the bearish period of 2018. Of 3.5 million BTC that were in exchanges in March 2020 , its all-time highmore than 1.1 million BTC, or 31.4%, have gone out.
There are currently 2.4 million BTC on exchanges, which is a 10% decrease from the beginning of the year.
Bitcoin market expels tourists
Through the study of the evolution of active addresses and active Bitcoin entities, a recent Glassnode market bulletin, commented by CriptoNoticias, maintains that very short-term traders and speculators have left the market.
The report also indicates that the market is moving towards a HODLers regime, that is, BTC holders with little willingness to sell. These findings are consistent with the increasing number of BTCs that have flown out of exchanges, as mentioned above.