Bitcoin (BTC) has a “neutral to positive” outlook despite holding below $20,000according to ARK Investment Management.
In his latest “Bitcoin Monthly” report, US asset management giant showed signs that BTC price action is close to bottoming out.
Wood: “We are waiting for more signs of capitulation”
One of the loudest supporters of bitcoin, ARK and its CEO, Cathie Wood, have remained exposed to BTC as the market continues to fall from its all-time highs..
The latest publication of Bitcoin Monthly confirms that conviction, and Wood, analysts and research associate David Puell suggested there is little ground left to cover before the BTC/USD action reverses..
“Down 70% from its all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the overall market cost basis (realized price), long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders’ cost basis, and its 2017 high,” reads The report.
“Trading below these levels is outlier and suggests extremely oversold conditions. Only four times in history has bitcoin traded below price levels relative to these media.”
Therefore, most of the losses should have come by now, if history is any guide. Among the indicators that have yet to see absolute lows is the MVRV ratiowhich is the relationship between the realized capitalization and the cost base of the entities that are listed during different periods of time.
“Historically, global lows occur when the MVRV of short-term holders exceeds the MVRV of long-term holders,” ARK explained..
“That condition has not been met, suggesting the possibility of more falls.”
In general, however, Wood in particular sees little cause for concern as bitcoin markets weather a macro storm of significant historical proportions..
In the latest edition of ARK’s podcast “In the Know” published on July 1, he described the firm’s attitude towards BTC as “neutral to positive” usually.
“We’re waiting for some more signs of capitulation and of course time will tell. We haven’t heard of another sign of stress in the last couple of days so that’s good too,” Wood said..
The downward trend in prices continues
ARK’s position echoes that of several market commentators.
As Cointelegraph continues to report, Consensus is building around a drop to around $16,000, and most on-chain indicators are already at seldom-to-never-before-seen lows.
Lower highs all the time. Pumps have low volume and they look corrective.
Main target remains $15,800-16,200 pic.twitter.com/HNAB8MXQZZ
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) July 5, 2022
BTC. Lower highs all the time. The raises have little volume and seem corrective. The main target remains $15,800-16,200. pic.twitter.com/HNAB8MXQZZ
“Historically, the 200-week MA has featured as a bottoming indicator for BTC. In this cycle, things may be a bit different,” said popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital to his Twitter followers late last week, continuing the theme touched on by ARK.
“Instead of BTC bottoming out at the 200-week MA, it may form a macro range below it. Anything below the 200MA will likely represent a spike opportunity.”
The 200-week MA is currently just above $22,550, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, and it has never stopped rising.
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