A technical analysis sent exclusively to Cointelegraph by Quantia data analyst Tomas Wallingre concludes that we should expect a positive year for the bitcoin price.
The analysis suggests that following the historical behavior of the price of Bitcoin before the halving, 2023 should be a year of positive returns for the asset.
Year | Stage | annual return |
2011 | Bull Market | 1464% |
2012 | Bull Market | 182% |
2013 | Bull Market | 5480% |
2014 | Bear Market | -57% |
2015 | Bull Market | 35% |
2016 | Bull Market | 125% |
2017 | Bull Market | 1299% |
2018 | Bear Market | -72% |
2019 | Bull Market | 91% |
2020 | Bull Market | 304% |
2021 | Bull Market | 61% |
2022 | Bear Market | -65% |
2023 | ? | +35% |
Source: Quantia
“As can be seen in the previous table, hand in hand with the halving, very marked 4-year cycles were observed that until now have been repeated without interruptions,” highlights Tomas’ analysis.
For the moment, the price of Bitcoin has managed to perform positively during the month of January, although it has currently lost part of these gains at the beginning of this month of March.
Nevertheless, The Quantia analyst points out that one of the most used tools in the field of technical analysis in all types of assets, including Bitcoin, is the 200-day SMA (average price of the last 200 days).
In the case of bitcoin, it clearly marks a change in trend when the asset price is above (bullish) or below (bearish) the SMA-200d.
Despite the fact that in January it managed to break the barrier of USD 19,500 (SMA-200d), this does not imply that it cannot go back below, but it does mean that there was a change in the bearish trend after a little more than a year.
Source: Glassnode
Back on the path of profit
Another of the tools that the Quantity analyst points out as useful for studying the behavior of investors’ portfolios is Realized Gain (on-chain).
According to Thomas, the ratio that compares the Gains and Losses Realized managed to reverse the trend that had been occurring during 2022 where the losses outweighed the gains.
Source: Glassnode
Taking the data from Glassnode as a reference, it also stands out that after the last price increase, most participants were back in unrealized gains after 166 days.
Source: Glassnode
If we compare the length of this last period, we can see that it was very similar to the period of 2011-2012 of 157 days and 2018-2019 of 134 days.
Finally, the analyst points out that Finally, it seems that the excess leverage and loss levels reached are coming to an end, triggering the long-awaited change in trend.
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