the mexican peso closed the first half of 2023 with an appreciation of 12.18%trading at 17.12 pesos per dollar in Friday’s session, placing it as the second most appreciated currency among the main crosses against the dollar.
In the semester, the Mexican peso reached a maximum of 19.53 and a minimum of 17.02, not seen since December 18, 2015.
Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, indicated that the appreciation of the Mexican currency is mainly due to five factors:
1. The flows of dollars that have arrived from abroad through exports, remittances and foreign direct investment.
2. The restrictive monetary policy of Banco de México, which maintains a wide interest rate differential (600 basis points) with respect to the United States.
3. The international preference for investing in currencies that have a good perspective given the growth opportunity offered by Nearshoring. It should be remembered that, in addition, the Mexican peso is the most liquid currency in Latin America and operates 24 hours a day, which is why it is preferred for speculative operations.
4. The possibility that the United States can avoid the economic recession.
5. The weakening of the US dollar of 1.09% during the year, given the expectation that the Federal Reserve is close to ending the cycle of interest rate increases.
The specialist added thathe Mexican peso may continue to appreciate as long as international expectations continue to be good for the Mexican economy due to the nearshoring opportunity. Given this, it is possible that the Mexican peso reaches prices of 16.90 pesos per dollar during the summer.
Something that could make the Mexican peso less attractive is the uncertainty about the electoral process to take place next year. But so far, the news about possible candidates has not had an impact on the exchange rate.
In June, the most appreciated currencies were: the Colombian peso with 6.28%, the Brazilian real with 5.34%, the South African rand with 4.45%, the Polish zloty with 4.03%, the Mexican peso with 3.18% and the Norwegian crown with 3.16%. . For their part, the most depreciated currencies in the month were: the Turkish lira with 25.30%, the Russian ruble with 9.90%, the Argentine peso with 7.21%, the Japanese yen with 3.57%, the Australian dollar with 2.48% and the yuan. Chinese with 2.04%.
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