Solid-state batteries are close to entering the electric car market, as many manufacturers have made a strong commitment to them. However, its better features implicitly bring a problem.
Little by little, the battery industry is evolving and the next step has already been clearly defined by manufacturers: solid-state batteries promise a new advance that will finally settle the electric car in the market.
While the world tries to solve other problems that limit the growth of electric mobility, car and battery manufacturers continue to move in the direction of a more competitive and profitable technology.
More than 90% of current lithium metal production is concentrated in China
Solid-state batteries promise all that, since they offer a much higher energy density and allow greater autonomy, as well as a shorter recharging time. All this results in a reduction in costs, since it is possible to obtain the same with much less.
lithium anode
But not all are advantages when it comes to solid-state batteries. While liquid lithium-ion batteries, that is, those currently used by industry, need graphite anodes, solid-state batteries use a graphite anode. lithium metal.
The use of lithium metal anodes can increase the energy density of the battery cell two to three times when combined with a traditional lithium-ion cathode material. Some companies are also looking to pair lithium metal with liquid electrolytes, which reduces the risk of thermal runaway compared to traditional carbonate-based liquid electrolytes.
The bet is strong and car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz -among many others- have invested in solid-state battery companies. But, as you may have deduced, all this significantly increases the demand for lithium of what is called “battery grade”, that is, of sufficient quality to be used in them.
According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimatesthe supply of lithium metal for the production of solid-state batteries should triple by the end of this decadeif you want to meet the projected demand for this new technology.
This translates into the need to 7,700 tons of lithium metal per year of battery grade, a material that currently costs between $300 and $400 per kilogram on the market.
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This means that the deficit of lithium products already foreseen in advance would worsen. To this we must add that “high purity lithium metal uses 5 times more lithium than lithium carbonate. Lithium chloride (LiCl) is the chemical precursor required for the production of lithium metal, which can be produced from brine or spodumene,” reports Benchmark.
«The expansion of solid-state batteries will drastically change the balance of the lithium market and will increase the supply chain capacity needed to meet this demand,” confirms Rory McNulty, an analyst at Benchmark.
China’s role in the market
As is the norm in all markets related to batteries and raw materials related to electric cars, China dominates the supply of lithium metal.
At this time, the market has a production capacity of approximately 2 GWh of solid-state batteries worldwide. Ganfeng Lithiumthe world’s leading producer of lithium metal, began construction of a 10 GWh production plant for this type of battery in July.
The Chinese company forecasts lithium metal battery production of 270 GWh by 2030, which would require 23,100 tons of this raw material, calculates Benchmark. This, in practice, is more than double the current market capacity to supply lithium metal.
More than 90% of that current production is concentrated in Chinawith Livent, Albemarle, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Xinghua Lithium and Jin Kunlun joining Ganfeng as major suppliers.
a complex balance
In this global context, the automotive industry and its suppliers face a difficult balancing act between the need to satisfy a growing demand and the doubt of when to start an expansion Large-scale production capacity.
The latter cannot be done overnight and done before the technology is proven and established in the market. would generate huge capital losses. By contrast, waiting too long “can result in competitors consuming supply contracts and exploiting economies of scale to gain significant price advantages,” notes Benchmark.
“To de-risk this process, it is critical that large lithium companies and lithium metal battery technology developers communicate throughout the marketing process to ensure a balance between supply and demand,” says McNulty.
Will the industry know how to overcome a new difficulty associated with the accelerated transition to electric cars that it has had to face?