After the First World War, the city of Paris was filled with ex-combatants willing to erase their penalties with champagne and gin.
At the end of the Second World War, the theme parks became the main attraction for the children of the returned soldiers who were the germ of the “baby boom” and, after the attack on the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, flying in a plane was never the same again.
The tourism that we know today (or knew about) was woven, in part, by the social consequences derived from the great recent catastrophes of humanity. However, no one expected a pandemic.
The health crisis currently shaking the world throws up new challenges but also many doubts, especially when, unlike bombings and attacks, the conflict is collective and the common enemy a virus that can only be sentenced by a vaccine.
And it is that a year ago, nobody would have thought that the mask would become an essential complement to the routine that telecommuting would be our daily bread and uncertainty, the background of a new generation.
A crisis to which, of course, tourism does not escape either. After confinement and its consequent de-escalation, most of us have limited ourselves to traveling to our town, making a getaway in a caravan, or even staying at home.
Only then does the question float in the air leaving a nostalgic residue: Will we go back to the old days? To travel far? To Hong Kong or Costa Rica?
We spoke with different experts about the future of long trips, although we already give you a first clue: goodbye, mass tourism.
IT’S NOT SURVIVING, IT’S ADAPTING
The answers to the future of travel are born in the present. In a routine very different from the old one. In our current behavior: “The simple fact of teleworking already supposes a different concept of mobility that, transferred to travel, will depend on the ‘loopholes’ of each one of us”, psychologist Sebastián Mera tells Traveler.es.
“The predisposition to travel is not going to be the same for someone who has lost a loved one as for someone who has not been so affected,” continues Sebastián, claiming that during these months, a large part of the patients yearns to return to the moment. Zero in which living locked up meant not being exposed to the virus-like now.
“Human beings have always had problems managing uncertainty, and this is going to become the main problem in the coming months since we will always be on the alert in the event of an outbreak.”
In addition to our own way of dealing with uncertainty, two other factors are added that determine the short-term predisposition to the time, not only to travel but to consume any type of leisure: the “benefits” of the new normal and the influence of excess of information.
“Beyond the virus itself, the pandemic has been a transformative experience, “ psychologist Anabel Báez tells Traveler.es.
“People have always felt that we had to travel the farther the better and go out every weekend because that’s what we had to do. However, with this break, many of us have discovered that we feel good and we have seen that not everything we did was crucial. That you can live without going out on a Saturday and going to your town instead of to a distant country. This has been the first common experience of a generation and it has fostered a sense of community because, unlike other events, we all have a common fear ”, he continues.
“If we also dig a little deeper, we discover that over information is also a problem, especially for people at risk. Our elders used to have a very marked routine that today has been transformed and that depends, to a greater or lesser extent, on staying locked up looking out that window called television, full of news that puts even more fear in the body. That conditions”.
The uncertainty, the bombardments of tweets, the acceptance of the new rhythm of a world that was spinning too fast. Just some of the nuances that make up the pattern of today’s average traveler but, for some, not that of the future:
“If we pay attention to Darwin, the one who survives is not the strongest, but the one who best adapts”, adds Sebastián Mera. Once we are aware of this reality, it is worth wondering if certain habits will be temporary or if they will stay with us forever.
“Of course, the pandemic will leave us with certain reminders and changes in social habits that, when contextualized, can even become constructive and healthy,” says psychologist Laura Palomares.
“We will go through a time of caution and, say, ‘groping’ before we travel far again. This is good and adaptive but, after that period and once we verify that the danger has passed, with great probability we will return to our activities, perhaps with new precautions, yes, but we will gradually lose that alert. The human being has the flexibility to adapt with agility and lose fear, so in most cases, disorders such as hodophobia (travel phobia) or similar will not develop ”.
A PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTOR … AND ECONOMIC
The future of the world of travel, like that of many other sectors, depends on obvious psychological features, so inherent to the current situation.
However, other factors also come into play. And one of them is undoubtedly the dreaded economic crisis . Especially in a country like Spain, where 33% of Spanish households cannot afford even one week of vacation a year and unemployment will only increase, will there be the same predisposition to travel?
“For now, everything is speculation, but there are trends that we see now and that can be consolidated in the medium term,” sociologist Javier Arenas tells Traveler.es.
“The majority concern of today’s society continues to be health care, but the economic consequences of the pandemic are gaining more and more importance, since there is a great retraction in family spending and this has important consequences in the products and services that are bought and, especially, in how they are bought (flexible contracting, for example). And that reality especially affects long trips ”.
Javier insists on the bad forecasts of international tourism, since some sources speak of recovery from previous levels in three years, while others place it in a margin of between five to ten years, periods in which we should already have a vaccine.
“In my opinion, only the laboratories of the richest countries are in a position to obtain a vaccine and, therefore, the populations of these countries would be the first to be vaccinated while those of the poor countries would take years to be vaccinated if is that sometimes they get to be ”, Javier continues.
“International tourists come mostly from rich countries. If thanks to the vaccine they are already immune to COVID-19, they should not be afraid to travel to any destination because, in theory, they cannot contract the disease. Another thing is that we find those countries in a desert and anodyne state and that also produces a collective rejection ”.
GETTING BACK TO BE MARCO POLO
Our predisposition to travel and the situation of the economy are key concepts to understand the future of long trips but, once faced, above the “what” and “when”, the “how” will be key to deciphering our future adventures.
Only then can we ask ourselves: Will we travel the same as before? Will Venice look as overwhelmed as in 2019 and will we push ourselves to take the best photograph of that sunset in Bali? But especially: Will we travel far again?
“Absolutely yes,” says Pablo Pascual Bécares, director of the travel agency Sociedad Geográfica de las Indias. “We will travel far again, but it is very likely that we will do it differently. The safety factor and perception will be key for a long time in the choice of destination and it is likely that there will be more nature component and less of large cities. The Maldives versus a Singapore, for example ”.
A reality that would undermine the concept of group travel and “traveling to travel”: “The actors in the world of travel (insurance, hotels, transport, experiences, agencies, etc.) are already prepared for the new situation. It is necessary to continue opening borders, of course, but that will happen soon. And a little later, a part of the clients will want to travel again, with caution, with security, with more guarantees, thoroughly reading the cancellation policies and those things that were rarely read ”, continues Pablo, fervent defender of a future of less mass travel.
“The long-haul trip will regain the tasty flavor of yesteryear. With the development of industrial tourism, we had reached a point where traveling and doing it far away was almost an obligation. But the future of travel in the medium term does not continue there. It will matter again what, how, with whom and not so much where, “he says, before throwing out the definitive mantra of the future of long trips: ” There will be fewer tourists and more travelers.”