Lowering pandemic-era restrictions on masking and social distancing may increase the chances of a vaccine-resistant strain of coronavirus emerging. This, according to a new study published in Scientific Reports.
What the experts advise
Although vaccination is the best strategy to control viral spread. We must also change our behavior and mindset to stay ahead of vaccine-resistant strains. According to the four authors of the report.
“We have become used to thinking about the pandemic from the point of view of epidemiology. And we advise reducing transmission and the number of people who get sick and the mortality rate ”. Explained co-author Fyodor Kondrashov, PhD, an evolutionary biologist at the Institute of Science and Technology in Austria, said at a news conference Thursday.
“As the pandemic spreads over the years, there will be a new dimension to our thinking, both for policy makers and the public. And that’s the evolutionary perspective ”.
New strain? Preventive measures are vital even after vaccination
The next “mindset shift” that Kondrashov envisions should reassure people that masking and social distancing. Even after being vaccinated, it is vital.
“It reduces the possibility that a vaccine resistant strain is circulating. We are not just trying to prevent the spread. But the evolution of novel variants. Which are so rare at the moment that we have not yet identified them. ” he said.
The researchers simulated the probability that a vaccine-resistant strain will emerge in a population of 10 million people over 3 years. Starting vaccinations after the first year. For eight scenarios, infection, recovery, death, vaccination, and mutation rates, and the percentage of individuals with resistant viral strains were factors in the model.
The model also simulated low and high transmission waves, similar to the effects of large-scale interventions such as blocks.
Three factors
The study showed that three factors increase the likelihood that a vaccine-resistant strain will take hold:
- Slow vaccination rates.
- Large number of infected people.
- Faster mutation rate.
- These factors, Rello said, are obvious to some degree.
Every infected individual is like a minibioreactor
“Every infected individual is like a minibioreactor. This increases the risk of mutations that endow the virus with the property of avoiding the immune system primed by a vaccine, “he said.
Not so obvious, Rello added, is when most people get vaccinated. A vaccine resistant strain has an advantage over the parent strain and spreads faster.
But we can stop it, he said.
The possibility of eradicating the virus
“Our model shows that if at the time a vaccine campaign is close to ending and non-pharmacological interventions are maintained. Then there is the possibility of completely eliminating the vaccine-resistant mutations from the virus population, ”he said.
In settings where a resistant strain was established, resistance initially arose after approximately 60% of the population had been vaccinated. That makes non-pharmaceutical interventions like masking and social distancing vital.
A ‘mighty force’
“We hope for the best, that resistance to the vaccine has not developed. But we caution that evolution is a very powerful force, and maintaining some precautions during vaccination can help control that evolution, ”Kondrashov said.
It is pessimistic because many countries still have difficulties accessing vaccines and the efficacy of vaccines decreases slightly over time.. The authors warn that “the appearance of a partially or totally vaccine-resistant strain and its eventual establishment seems inevitable.”
The worst case scenario is familiar to population biologists: “vaccine development rounds catching up in the evolutionary arms race against new strains,” the authors write.
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