Prudence. This is what the Minister of Health, Carolina Darias, is asking for. After three consecutive days (with data from Thursday) of decline, on Friday the incidence of the coronavirus rose by 139 points to 3,418.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, new high of pandemic. The head of the department appealed to calm because a large part of the communities still maintain a high rate of transmission, part of the country remains confined and, most seriously, the health crisis continues to have an impact on hospitals. More reinfections, vaccine escape, massive contagion…are some of the keys imposed by the omicron variant after almost two months of the first case detected in Spain, as published by El Periódico de España.
According to data provided on Friday by the Ministry of Health, Spain is on the verge of 9 million positives. The figures indicate that the downward trend is broken after three consecutive days. The pressure in the ICU remains at 23.2% and also in hospital occupancy on the floor, which is 14.9%. that the sixth wave is a tsunami of infections is an incontestable reality. That same day, the Minister of Education and Vocational Training, Pilar Alegría, contributed data on its impact in the classroom: according to those provided by the autonomous communities, currently 24,742 teachers are isolated due to positive or in quarantine, which means 4.28% of the total; and 262,451 students (3.77% of the total).
For his part, the Minister of Inclusion, José Luis Escrivá, has provided an approximation to the latest figures on sick leave due to coronavirus and has stated that the sixth wave has caused “a level of casualties of around 10% of the entire set of Social Security affiliates”. As published The Newspaper of Spain, Escrivá has not provided the specific figure, but taking into account that there are 19.8 million affiliates, 10% would mean that close to 2 million people have taken advantage of a low motivated by the virus in recent weeks.
Has it passed the peak?
That We were on the way to the so-called “mass contagion” It is something that doctors have been warning about since the data began to skyrocket at the end of November and on the eve of Christmas. That, in the middle or end of January, it could hit a ceiling, too. That yes, indicated several experts to this newspaper during all these last weeks, all from the maximum caution. Because it remains to be seen.
After the weekly meeting of the Interterritorial Council, this Wednesday Darias herself advanced that, for the first time, you could talk about a slowdown and the sixth wave could be coming to an end. However, some autonomies recognize that self-diagnosis at home – in some regions through pharmacies – has caused not all cases to be reported. And that continues to worry. The latest data, those of Friday, do not help to glimpse that peak.
Inflection point
“Omicron has been the variant that has affected us in the pandemic with a greater change in the structure of the virus. And for this reason it shows a much higher rate of escape from the vaccine and of infection. Because of its greater transmission capacity” , Dr. Gabriel Reina González, a specialist in Clinical Microbiology at the University Clinic of Navarra, tells EPE.
The greatest fear of health workers has been, from the first moment, that the explosion of infections would collapse the health system. However, even though in the sixth wave there have been incidents “up to seven times higher than the same date last year”, the probability of hospitalization is eight times lower and in the ICU, up to 15 times“, reviewed this week the minister.
Dr. Marcos López Hoyos, president of the Spanish Immunology Society (SEI), head of the immunology service at the Marqués de Valdecilla University Hospital in Santander and scientific director of the IDIVAL Research Institute, warned a few weeks ago The Newspaper of Spain about the high transmission of the new variant and the protection of the vaccines: “They do not remove the virusIt’s the wrong message.”
more infections
Days later, the immunologist reviews the new scenario we are facing and, on omicron, explains that, as is known, it is a very infective variant: “It has been able to infect a lot because the antibodies have either fallen after six months or because the vaccine escapes in this case.” This reason, he points out, also would justify that so many reinfections have occurred in people who had already had the disease, something that had not happened in previous waves. “Yes, of course,” admits the specialist who insists, it is a much more contagious variant.
In addition, adds López Hoyos, now you can no longer talk about herd immunity as such. “We have seen that the antibodies after a while are disappearing in a percentage of the population of around 50%”, he stresses. In the current scenario, the important thing is not so much to achieve that immunity as “have vaccinated, with the normal schedule of two doses, one hundred percent of the population. In the case of the third dose, especially in more vulnerable people, he adds, it has been shown to be capable of increasing the neutralizing capacity of antibodies.”
That this third dose provides more antibodies and more defenses to neutralize the virus, whatever its variant, in the elderly is one of the main conclusions of a new seroprevalence study carried out by the Carlos III Health Institute -ENE-COVID Senior -, presented this week by the agency’s director, Cristóbal Belda, together with Minister Darias.
What we learned from omicron
However, the president of the SEI draws attention to the administration of this booster dose in a healthy population. “We see no need. Because, although not to infection in this case, people do respond well to the disease,” he points out. On the other hand, from an immunological point of view, they also do not see the need to administer that third dose to those who already had the complete regimen (two dose) and has been infected with omicron “It would be like giving a fourth vaccine,” he specifies.
In this sense, Dr. López Hoyos considers that a fourth dose would only be recommended in the immunosuppressed population, but always after evaluating the immune response, both in terms of antibodies and cells. “Vaccinating with the same type of vaccine over and over again does not have much immunological reasoning. Perhaps other types of vaccines should be reconsidered, including other doses and determine how often they should be used and in which population“, Add.
What have we learned during these almost two months with the omicron variant? “The benefit of vaccines or previous natural infection against any type of serious disease, even with these new variants that are more structurally distant from the previous virus,” says microbiologist Gabriel Reina from the University Clinic of Navarra. The fact of having received, in addition, booster doses in the immunocompromised or elderly population, abounds, has shown how infection rates have dropped a lot after the third dose, he concludes.