Traders are taking a stay away from Bitcoin and altcoins approach until BTC manages to get back to the $20,000 level, but as support.
The bears are attempting to sink Bitcoin (BTC) below $19,000 to further cement their advantage in the cryptocurrency market. Analysts watching Bitcoin’s MVRV-Z Score, a metric that measures how high or low Bitcoin’s price is relative to “fair price,” expect an even deeper drop before a bottom is finally reached.
However, economist, trader, and entrepreneur Alex Krueger noted that Bitcoin volume hit an all-time high in June. Typically, higher volume in a downtrend is indicative of capitulation and that “creates big bottoms.” If Bitcoin follows the historical pattern of the 2018 bear market, Krueger expects the bottom to form in July.
Due to the close correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, cryptocurrency traders will need to closely monitor the behavior of the US equity markets next week, which may be influenced by the release of the latest minutes. US Federal Reserve meeting and June employment report.
Will Bitcoin be able to form a higher low and put the market on the path to recovery? Let’s study the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that indicate the possibility of a short-term relief rally.
BTC/USDT
The long wick of Bitcoin’s July 1 candle shows that the bears are still selling on rallies near the 20-day exponential moving average ($21.396). Although the bears plunged the price below $19.637, they have not been able to build on the momentum.
The bulls are attempting to push the price back above $19.637. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could rally back towards the 20-day EMA. With a breakout and close above $22,000, a trend reversal could follow. The pair could then attempt a rally towards the 50-day SMA ($25.938).
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears are still in control. The sellers will endeavor to push the price below $18,626. If they do, the pair could slide to the important support zone between $17.960 and $17.622.
This is an important area for the bulls to defend, as failure to do so could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then slide to $15,000.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are aggressively defending the 20 EMA. Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative zone, which indicates that the bears are in control. A break below $18.626 could further strengthen the sellers.
This bearish view could be negated in the short term if the bulls push the price above the 20 EMA. Then the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA, where the bears could do their thing again. If the price breaks through this resistance, the pair could rally to $21,000 and then $22,000.
SHIB/USDT
Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been trading in a tight range near the moving averages as the bulls attempt to form a higher low near $0.000009. Typically, a narrow range trade is followed by a range expansion.
If the price breaks above the 50-day SMA ($0.000010), the SHIB/USDT pair could pick up momentum and move up to $0.000012 and then $0.000014. A breakout and close above this level could indicate a possible change in trend.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below $0.000009, it could trap the bulls who might have bought the break above the 50-day SMA. That could clear the way for a retouch of $0.000007. A break below this crucial support could signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle pattern. The pair is stuck between the 20 EMA and the support line of the triangle. If the bears sink and sustain the price below the support line, the pair could drop to $0.000009. A break below this support could signal that the bears are back in control.
Conversely, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the resistance line of the triangle. If this level is crossed, the pair could rally to $0.000011 and then head to $0.000012.
MATIC/USDT
Polygon (MATIC) turned down from the strong overhead resistance of $0.61 on June 26 and the bears pushed the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.50) on June 28. One small silver lining is that the bears did not allow the bears to increase their lead and bought the dip on June 30.
Since then, the MATIC/USDT pair is trading close to the 20-day EMA. This suggests that the bulls are trying to push the price back above the level. If they succeed, the pair could once again try to break above the $0.61 hurdle.
The RSI has made a positive divergence, which indicates that the bears may be losing their grip. A break above $0.61 could pave the way for a possible rally towards $0.75.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and slides below $0.41, it will suggest that the recent rally may have been a bear market rally. The sellers will then try to push the price back towards the crucial support at $0.31.
The buyers pushed the price above the downtrend line and the 20 EMA but could not break above the psychological level of $0.50. This attracted selling and the shorts have pushed the price to $0.45. If this support breaks, the price is likely to touch $0.41 again.
Conversely, if the price bounces off the current level, it will suggest that the bears are buying the dips. The bulls will once again attempt to break above the overhead resistance of $0.50. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $0.55 and then $0.61.
ATOM/USDT
After a prolonged downward trend, Cosmos (ATOM) is attempting to form a bottom. The buyers pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($7.84) on July 1, but the 50-day SMA ($8.81) is likely to act as a strong barrier.
The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint indicate that the selling pressure may be easing. If the buyers push the price above the 50-day SMA, the bullish momentum could increase and the ATOM/USDT pair could rally to $10.84 and then $12.50. A breakout and close above this level could produce a trend reversal.
This uptrend could be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $6.89. If that happens, the pair could retest the critical support at $5.55.
On the 4-hour chart, the bulls are trying to turn the 50-day SMA into support. If the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $8.38, the bulls could challenge the immediate resistance at $8.75. A break above this level could signal a resumption of the move up. The pair could go as high as $9.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears are still selling higher levels. The pair could then slide towards $7.18 and then $6.89.
APE/USDT
The buyers pushed and closed ApeCoin (APE) above the 20-day EMA ($4.69) on June 27, but were unable to take advantage of the rally. The bears pushed the price back below the 20-day EMA on June 29, but a positive sign is that the bears have not given up much ground.
This suggests that buyers are not closing their positions as they anticipate a move higher. The flattening out of the 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest that the selling pressure could be easing.
If the buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, it could tip the advantage in your favor. The APE/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day EMA ($5.72), where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $4.21, the next stop could be $3.85.
The 4-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers. Both moving averages are flat and the RSI is close to the midpoint, which suggests a steady state.
If the price breaks below the triangle, it will suggest that the bears have asserted their supremacy. In that case, the pair could drop to the pattern target of $3.78.
On the other hand, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the triangle, it could be an advantage signal for the bulls. The pair could rally to $5.38 and subsequently to $5.57.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.